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Beatriz Mesquita v Melissa Mullins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Beatriz Mesquita (Local)
Prediction 84.72%1.18fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -17.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.88%84.71%84.96%86.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.121.121.1591.74%89.09%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melissa Mullins (Visit)
Prediction 15.28%6.54fair odd
EV +10.80%
Edge +1.49%
Kelly +1.73%
Growth +0.187%
assuming max odds 7.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.07%15.29%15.04%18.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.156.005.757.2519.42%16.68%17.39%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Beatriz Mesquita (Local): 84.72%; Melissa Mullins (Visit): 15.28%. For Melissa Mullins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.54. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -7.66%E -7.03%K -85.09%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV +10.80%E +1.49%K +1.73%G +0.187% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 23:17 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -7.66%E -7.03%K -85.09%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV +10.80%E +1.49%K +1.73%G +0.187% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 23:17 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.40%EV -5.96%E -5.37%K -54.22%G +0.000% | 7.05I 14.18%NM 13.60%EV +7.75%E +1.10%K +1.28%G +0.099% | 4.3% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.96%E -5.37%K -54.22%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +6.98%E +0.997%K +1.16%G +0.081% | 4.4% | 2026-06-20 23:18 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.96%E -5.37%K -54.22%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +6.98%E +0.997%K +1.16%G +0.081% | 4.4% | 2026-06-20 23:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.81%E -6.19%K -68.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.98%E +0.997%K +1.16%G +0.081% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 23:18 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.98%EV -4.27%E -3.78%K -32.84%G +0.000% | 6.93I 14.43%NM 14.02%EV +5.91%E +0.853%K +0.997%G +0.059% | 2.9% | 2026-06-20 23:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.49%EV -5.12%E -4.57%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.51%EV +0.868%E +0.131%K +0.155%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-06-20 23:18 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.96%E -5.37%K -54.22%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -0.660%E -0.102%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.12%E -4.57%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -2.19%E -0.342%K -0.405%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-20 23:18 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.27%E -3.78%K -32.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.12%E -4.57%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.81%E -6.19%K -68.11%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -8.30%E -1.38%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.42%E -3.00%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.42%E -3.00%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 21:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.12%E -4.57%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -12.12%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.42%E -3.00%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -14.42%E -2.57%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.58%E -2.24%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 21:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.42%E -3.00%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-20 17:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.33%EV -6.81%E -6.19%K -68.11%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.33%EV -6.81%E -6.19%K -68.11%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -15.94%E -2.90%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -3.42%E -3.00%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -19.00%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -3.42%E -3.00%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -19.00%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -4.27%E -3.78%K -32.84%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -19.00%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.43%EV -4.27%E -3.78%K -32.84%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -19.00%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -2.58%E -2.24%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -19.76%E -3.76%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 17:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -4.27%E -3.78%K -32.84%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -19.76%E -3.76%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-20 22:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.28%EV -5.12%E -4.57%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -20.53%E -3.95%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.88%EV -3.42%E -3.00%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.12%EV -21.29%E -4.13%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-20 23:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 87.08% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.92% | -0.1% | 2026-06-20 23:12 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04% | 0.9% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-06-20 23:17 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.87% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.13% | 3.0% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.54% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.46% | 3.2% | 2026-06-20 23:18 |
| Novig◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.10% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 16.90% | 12.5% | 2026-06-20 23:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 73.32% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 26.68% | 22.9% | 2026-06-20 23:20 |