The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Baris Adiguzel v Gustavo Oliveira

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baris Adiguzel (Local)

Prediction 54.76%1.83fair odd
EV +69.76%
Edge +22.50%
Kelly +33.22%
Growth +23.18%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.55%54.76%54.76%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.702.041.743.1058.82%49.12%57.47%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gustavo Oliveira (Visit)

Prediction 45.24%2.21fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%45.24%45.24%70.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.862.042.1576.92%53.68%49.02%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baris Adiguzel (Local): 54.76%; Gustavo Oliveira (Visit): 45.24%. For Baris Adiguzel (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +69.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV +69.76%E +22.50%K +33.22%G +23.18%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -41.19%E -31.69%K -137.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 18:39
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV +31.43%E +13.10%K +22.45%G +7.06%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -31.24%E -20.55%K -60.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 18:39
LeoVegas🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.79%EV +3.50%E +1.85%K +3.93%G +0.138%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.21%EV -21.74%E -12.57%K -29.78%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.71%E -2.71%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.74%E -1.27%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-23 18:34
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%EV -7.72%E -3.78%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 18:37
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.74%E -1.27%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 18:29
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.74%E -1.27%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 18:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.