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Azamat Murzakanov v Paulo Henrique Costa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Azamat Murzakanov (Local)
Prediction 69.19%1.45fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.743%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.59%69.14%69.35%72.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.391.401.4378.13%72.07%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Paulo Henrique Costa (Visit)
Prediction 30.81%3.25fair odd
EV +1.68%
Edge +0.510%
Kelly +0.731%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.95%30.86%30.65%33.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.773.032.993.3036.10%33.00%33.44%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Azamat Murzakanov (Local): 69.19%; Paulo Henrique Costa (Visit): 30.81%. For Paulo Henrique Costa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.25. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.68%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV +1.68%E +0.510%K +0.731%G +0.012% | 3.8% | 2026-04-12 02:57 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV +1.68%E +0.510%K +0.731%G +0.012% | 8.4% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -11.44%E -8.94%K -40.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV +1.68%E +0.510%K +0.731%G +0.012% | 8.4% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.26%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.74%EV +0.449%E +0.138%K +0.199%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.60%E -4.89%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.40%E -0.437%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.94%E -0.933%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.94%E -0.933%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.42%EV -5.21%E -3.81%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.58%EV -4.17%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-12 02:58 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.21%E -3.81%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.91%E -4.34%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 02:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.52%E -3.28%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -1.75%E -1.24%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -8.18%E -2.74%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -2.45%E -1.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.64%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.14%E -2.24%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -1.06%E -0.743%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -12.18%E -4.28%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 02:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -1.75%E -1.24%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -12.18%E -4.28%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.59%EV -3.83%E -2.76%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.41%EV -14.65%E -5.29%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-12 02:56 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.72% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 30.28% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.7% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-04-12 03:00 |