Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Azamat Murzakanov v Dominick Reyes

2026-10-24 14:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Azamat Murzakanov (Local)

Prediction 65.07%1.54fair odd

EV -3.69%

Edge -2.49%

Kelly -7.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.55%65.07%65.18%65.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.461.461.4868.97%68.38%68.49%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dominick Reyes (Visit)

Prediction 34.93%2.86fair odd

EV -2.91%

Edge -1.05%

Kelly -1.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.59%34.93%34.82%35.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.642.712.712.7837.88%36.90%36.90%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Azamat Murzakanov (Local): 65.07%; Dominick Reyes (Visit): 34.93%. For Dominick Reyes (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.78, with an expected value of -2.91%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.18%EV -3.69%E -2.49%K -7.69%G +0.000%	2.77I 36.10%NM 34.82%EV -3.26%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-14 20:00
Pinnacle🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -4.34%E -2.95%K -9.24%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -2.91%E -1.05%K -1.63%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-14 20:09
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.64%E -3.89%K -12.54%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -7.45%E -2.81%K -4.51%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-14 20:00
ReBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.55%EV -5.64%E -3.89%K -12.54%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 35.45%EV -7.80%E -2.95%K -4.75%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-14 20:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%	4.0%	2026-10-14 20:00
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 72.45%	2.63I 38.02%NM 27.55%	38.0%	2026-10-14 20:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 62.76%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.72%	11.4%	2026-10-14 20:14