The School of Odds
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Azamat Murzakanov v Dominick Reyes

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 17:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Azamat Murzakanov (Local)

Prediction 64.66%1.55fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.699%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%64.75%64.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.461.451.5374.63%68.66%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dominick Reyes (Visit)

Prediction 35.34%2.83fair odd
EV +1.78%
Edge +0.618%
Kelly +0.946%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%35.25%35.56%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.722.752.8840.32%36.76%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Azamat Murzakanov (Local): 64.66%; Dominick Reyes (Visit): 35.34%. For Dominick Reyes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.78%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -6.89%E -4.78%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV +1.78%E +0.618%K +0.946%G +0.017%4.2%2026-10-24 17:31
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV +0.365%E +0.129%K +0.198%G +0.001%5.1%2026-10-24 17:31
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.05%E -0.374%K -0.582%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 03:49
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.18%EV -4.30%E -2.91%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.82%EV -2.11%E -0.761%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 17:18
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 12:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 12:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 12:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 12:04
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.89%E -4.78%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 12:05
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.89%E -4.78%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 12:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.89%E -4.78%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 12:05
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.89%E -4.78%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 12:05
Bally Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.89%E -4.78%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 12:05
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 03:50
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 17:31
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -2.82%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 17:31
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.58%E -1.70%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 17:25
Caesars🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.66%E -2.45%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.58%E -1.70%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 17:29
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.30%E -2.91%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.58%E -1.70%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 12:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.58%E -1.70%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.20%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 17:25
ReBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.20%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%EV -4.94%E -1.83%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 17:25
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -5.29%E -1.97%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 17:31
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.57%EV -1.07%E -0.699%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.43%EV -5.64%E -2.11%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-24 17:31
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.30%E -2.91%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.35%E -2.40%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:25
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -2.36%E -1.57%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -6.70%E -2.54%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 17:31
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -6.89%E -4.78%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -7.06%E -2.68%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 13:40
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.12%E -3.12%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 16:10
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 64.92%EV -13.36%E -9.97%K -39.28%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.08%EV -12.36%E -4.98%K -8.35%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-21 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.53%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.47%-0.0%2026-10-24 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-10-24 17:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-10-24 17:31
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-10-24 17:31
Matchbook◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-10-24 17:29
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-10-24 16:15
Novig◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-10-24 17:25
Polymarket◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-10-24 16:55
ProphetX◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.33%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.67%2.5%2026-10-24 17:31

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.03%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.1%2026-10-22 11:55