The School of Odds

Austin Bashi v Jose Delgado

2026-07-18 21:00 — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Austin Bashi (Local)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.911.911.911.91MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
50.00%2.000Min
50.00%2.000Max
50.00%2.000Mean
50.00%2.000Median
50.00%2.000IQM
50.00%2.000Margin-weighted

Jose Delgado (Visit)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.911.911.911.91MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
50.00%2.000Min
50.00%2.000Max
50.00%2.000Mean
50.00%2.000Median
50.00%2.000IQM
50.00%2.000Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

BookmakerAustin Bashi (Local) ▼Jose Delgado (Visit)MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36% NM 50.00%EV -4.50% E -2.36% K -4.95% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 50.00%EV -4.50% E -2.36% K -4.95% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 00:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerAustin Bashi (Local)Jose Delgado (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.79I 55.87% NM 50.00%1.79I 55.87% NM 50.00%11.7%2026-07-09 01:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.83I 54.64% NM 48.65%1.83I 54.64% NM 48.65%33.00I 3.03% NM 2.70%12.3%2026-07-09 00:50