The School of Odds
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Austin Bashi v Carlos Calderon

2026-11-07 23:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austin Bashi (Local)

Prediction 78.45%1.27fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -2.85%
Kelly -15.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.46%78.45%78.45%78.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.211.211.2389.29%82.99%82.64%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlos Calderon (Visit)

Prediction 21.55%4.64fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -0.677%
Kelly -0.870%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%21.55%21.55%22.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.334.354.5025.97%23.12%22.99%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Austin Bashi (Local): 78.45%; Carlos Calderon (Visit): 21.55%. For Carlos Calderon (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.64. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.50, with an expected value of -3.04%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -3.50%E -2.85%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -5.20%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-05 00:46
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.29%E -3.51%K -19.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.04%E -0.677%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-04 22:00
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:14
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:14
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:15
betPARX🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:15
Bally Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.07%E -4.19%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.28%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 22:15
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 77.46%EV -12.13%E -10.83%K -101.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.54%EV -17.05%E -4.43%K -5.98%G +0.000%15.3%2026-11-04 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.48%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.69%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%7.2%2026-11-04 22:46