Language:English
Ateba Gautier v Roman Kopylov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ateba Gautier (Local)
Prediction 67.51%1.48fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -6.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.04%67.52%67.37%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4473.53%71.19%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Roman Kopylov (Visit)
Prediction 32.49%3.08fair odd
EV +0.071%
Edge +0.023%
Kelly +0.034%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%32.48%32.63%33.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.883.0836.36%34.51%34.72%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ateba Gautier (Local): 67.51%; Roman Kopylov (Visit): 32.49%. For Roman Kopylov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.078. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.080, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.071%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -4.14%E -2.91%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56%EV +0.071%E +0.023%K +0.034%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-03 23:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -0.904%E -0.296%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 23:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.904%E -0.296%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 23:52 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -1.88%E -0.622%K -0.930%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-03 12:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.53%E -0.843%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.53%E -0.843%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 23:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.53%E -0.843%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-02 12:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.50%EV -3.46%E -2.42%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.50%EV -3.50%E -1.18%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-03 23:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.14%E -2.91%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.15%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 15:41 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.15%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 12:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -3.46%E -2.42%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV -4.80%E -1.64%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.46%E -2.42%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 00:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.14%E -2.91%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 00:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.14%E -2.91%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-01 23:53 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 23:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.19%E -6.02%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-02 02:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.46%E -2.42%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 23:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 03:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.67%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -8.38%E -2.97%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 23:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.30%EV -7.51%E -5.48%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.70%EV -8.38%E -2.97%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 23:48 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.79%E -1.94%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.03%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 23:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 00:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.49%E -3.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 00:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.43%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-02 22:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -8.19%E -6.02%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-03 23:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.53% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 31.47% | -0.1% | 2026-10-03 23:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-10-04 00:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.64% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 30.36% | 0.4% | 2026-10-04 00:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-10-04 00:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-10-04 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-10-04 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-10-04 00:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.49% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.63% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 23:39 |