Language:English
Ateba Gautier v Ozzy Diaz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ateba Gautier (Local)
Prediction 89.73%1.11fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -2.87%
Kelly -38.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.97%89.63%89.73%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.071.0895.24%93.72%93.46%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ozzy Diaz (Visit)
Prediction 10.27%9.73fair odd
EV +7.86%
Edge +0.749%
Kelly +0.828%
Growth +0.065%
assuming max odds 10.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.09%10.37%10.27%12.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.909.249.5010.5012.66%10.82%10.53%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ateba Gautier (Local): 89.73%; Ozzy Diaz (Visit): 10.27%. For Ozzy Diaz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.73. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.86%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.79%E -5.51%K -115.73%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +7.86%E +0.749%K +0.828%G +0.065% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 00:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.79%E -5.51%K -115.73%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +7.86%E +0.749%K +0.828%G +0.065% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 00:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.89%E -4.61%K -81.49%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +2.73%E +0.273%K +0.303%G +0.008% | 4.3% | 2026-05-10 00:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 14:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.89%E -4.61%K -81.49%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 00:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.89%E -4.61%K -81.49%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 16:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.89%E -4.61%K -81.49%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 16:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.89%E -4.61%K -81.49%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.41%E -0.253%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 00:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.74%EV -3.09%E -2.87%K -38.68%G +0.000% | 9.45I 10.58%NM 10.26%EV -2.92%E -0.309%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.72%EV -3.09%E -2.87%K -38.68%G +0.000% | 9.43I 10.60%NM 10.28%EV -3.13%E -0.332%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 23:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.68%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.32%EV -4.46%E -0.480%K -0.538%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 00:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -3.09%E -2.87%K -38.68%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV -7.54%E -0.838%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -7.54%E -0.838%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-10 00:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -7.54%E -0.838%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 23:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.89%E -4.61%K -81.49%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.54%E -0.838%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 00:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.89%E -4.61%K -81.49%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.54%E -0.838%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-10 00:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.89%E -4.61%K -81.49%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.68%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 00:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.59%EV -5.79%E -5.51%K -115.73%G +0.000% | 8.15I 12.27%NM 11.41%EV -16.28%E -2.00%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-10 00:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -17.82%E -2.23%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 17:28 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -17.82%E -2.23%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-06 10:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -3.99%E -3.73%K -57.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -17.82%E -2.23%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-06 10:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.97%EV -3.09%E -2.87%K -38.68%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV -18.84%E -2.39%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 02:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.51% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 8.49% | 0.3% | 2026-05-10 00:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.99% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.01% | 1.9% | 2026-05-10 00:34 |
| Novig◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.38% | 9.17I 10.91%NM 10.62% | 2.6% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.16% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.84% | 3.7% | 2026-05-10 00:39 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.91% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.27% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83% | 9.6% | 2026-05-09 23:54 |