Language:English
Asu Almabaev v Charles Johnson
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Asu Almabaev (Local)
Prediction 73.85%1.35fair odd
EV +0.440%
Edge +0.324%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%73.57%73.74%75.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.301.291.3680.00%77.04%77.52%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Charles Johnson (Visit)
Prediction 26.15%3.82fair odd
EV +0.665%
Edge +0.173%
Kelly +0.233%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.43%26.26%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.573.653.8532.26%28.00%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Asu Almabaev (Local): 73.85%; Charles Johnson (Visit): 26.15%. For Charles Johnson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.665%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV +0.440%E +0.324%K +1.22%G +0.005% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -18.94%E -6.11%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-27 05:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -1.04%E -0.774%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -12.41%E -3.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-27 13:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -1.04%E -0.774%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -16.33%E -5.10%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 13:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -1.78%E -1.33%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV -12.67%E -3.79%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 13:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -1.78%E -1.33%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -15.02%E -4.62%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 13:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -1.78%E -1.33%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -15.02%E -4.62%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 14:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.25%E -2.48%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-27 13:58 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.66%EV -3.99%E -3.07%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.34%EV +0.142%E +0.037%K +0.050%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -3.99%E -3.07%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 12:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -3.99%E -3.07%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 12:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.99%E -3.07%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-27 16:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.99%E -3.07%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.18%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.99%E -3.07%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 15:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -3.99%E -3.07%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -15.02%E -4.62%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-27 16:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV +0.665%E +0.173%K +0.233%G +0.002% | 3.5% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV +0.665%E +0.173%K +0.233%G +0.002% | 3.5% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -0.904%E -0.238%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-27 16:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.95%E -0.520%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 16:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 16:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.71%EV -4.73%E -3.67%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.29%EV -14.50%E -4.43%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-26 20:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.47%E -4.27%K -19.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -1.95%E -0.520%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 16:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.47%E -4.27%K -19.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -1.95%E -0.520%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 16:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.47%E -4.27%K -19.53%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -6.21%E -4.89%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.10%E -3.26%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-27 16:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.68%E -6.15%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.95%E -0.520%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-27 16:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.52% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 25.48% | 0.1% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-06-27 15:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.2% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.2% | 2026-06-27 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33% | 1.3% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-06-27 17:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.23% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.31% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.46% | 7.1% | 2026-06-27 13:49 |