The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Asael Adjoudj v Keisuke Sasu

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Asael Adjoudj (Local)

Prediction 85.89%1.16fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -22.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.15%85.89%85.89%86.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.121.121.1390.91%89.51%89.29%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Keisuke Sasu (Visit)

Prediction 14.11%7.09fair odd
EV +0.175%
Edge +0.025%
Kelly +0.029%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.52%14.11%14.11%15.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.446.507.1016.67%15.52%15.38%14.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Asael Adjoudj (Local): 85.89%; Keisuke Sasu (Visit): 14.11%. For Keisuke Sasu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.175%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.48%EV -4.66%E -4.20%K -42.37%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.52%EV +0.175%E +0.025%K +0.029%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-23 18:55
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.52%E -5.02%K -55.20%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -4.76%E -0.706%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.52%E -5.02%K -55.20%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -4.76%E -0.706%K -0.828%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.80%E -3.39%K -31.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -8.29%E -1.28%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-23 18:59
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -2.94%E -2.60%K -22.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -15.35%E -2.56%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -2.94%E -2.60%K -22.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -15.35%E -2.56%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:59
Grosvenor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -2.94%E -2.60%K -22.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -15.35%E -2.56%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.