Language:English
Arnold Allen v Melquizael Costa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arnold Allen (Local)
Prediction 52.49%1.91fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.703%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.41%54.65%52.63%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.661.741.8874.63%60.26%57.47%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melquizael Costa (Visit)
Prediction 47.51%2.10fair odd
EV +52.04%
Edge +16.26%
Kelly +23.65%
Growth +12.31%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%45.35%47.37%49.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.252.053.2054.05%44.54%48.78%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arnold Allen (Local): 52.49%; Melquizael Costa (Visit): 47.51%. For Melquizael Costa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +52.04%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -29.67%E -22.14%K -87.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +52.04%E +16.26%K +23.65%G +12.31% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -28.62%E -21.04%K -79.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +42.53%E +14.18%K +21.27%G +9.05% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -27.57%E -19.98%K -72.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +37.78%E +13.03%K +19.89%G +7.51% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -28.62%E -21.04%K -79.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV +37.78%E +13.03%K +19.89%G +7.51% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -28.62%E -21.04%K -79.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV +37.78%E +13.03%K +19.89%G +7.51% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -24.42%E -16.96%K -55.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +30.66%E +11.15%K +17.52%G +5.37% | 5.8% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -25.47%E -17.93%K -60.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +30.66%E +11.15%K +17.52%G +5.37% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -25.47%E -17.93%K -60.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +30.66%E +11.15%K +17.52%G +5.37% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -25.47%E -17.93%K -60.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +30.66%E +11.15%K +17.52%G +5.37% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -25.47%E -17.93%K -60.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +30.66%E +11.15%K +17.52%G +5.37% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.22%EV -28.62%E -21.04%K -79.49%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.78%EV +21.15%E +8.30%K +13.65%G +2.89% | 12.7% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -15.49%E -9.62%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV +5.95%E +2.67%K +4.84%G +0.288% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -16.02%E -10.01%K -26.70%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV +3.57%E +1.64%K +3.03%G +0.108% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -16.02%E -10.01%K -26.70%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV +3.57%E +1.64%K +3.03%G +0.108% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -16.02%E -10.01%K -26.70%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV +3.57%E +1.64%K +3.03%G +0.108% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -17.59%E -11.21%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV +2.15%E +1.000%K +1.87%G +0.040% | 10.2% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.84%EV -18.12%E -11.61%K -32.35%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.16%EV +1.67%E +0.782%K +1.47%G +0.025% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -8.14%E -4.65%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -1.18%E -0.566%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 02:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.62%E -4.33%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -2.13%E -1.03%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 21:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.52%E -3.07%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.60%E -1.27%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 00:46 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.52%E -3.07%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.60%E -1.27%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 01:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -7.10%E -4.01%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -2.60%E -1.27%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 20:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.67%E -4.98%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.60%E -1.27%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -7.62%E -4.33%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -3.08%E -1.51%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -8.67%E -4.98%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -3.08%E -1.51%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.52%E -3.07%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.03%E -1.99%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 02:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67%EV -1.32%E -0.703%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.33%EV -4.50%E -2.24%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-17 02:21 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -3.95%E -2.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -4.50%E -2.24%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-17 02:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -4.98%E -2.49%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-17 02:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.47%E -2.46%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.98%E -2.49%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 19:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.47%E -2.46%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.98%E -2.49%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 19:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.52%E -3.07%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.98%E -2.49%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-15 18:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.52%E -3.07%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.98%E -2.49%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-17 02:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.67%E -4.98%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -4.98%E -2.49%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.72%E -5.65%K -13.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -4.98%E -2.49%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.72%E -5.65%K -13.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -4.98%E -2.49%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.95%E -2.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.93%E -2.99%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 02:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -1.85%E -0.987%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -7.35%E -3.77%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-17 02:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.90%E -1.57%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.35%E -3.77%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 02:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.52%E -3.07%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.35%E -3.77%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 02:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.52%E -3.07%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -9.73%E -5.12%K -10.81%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -4.47%E -2.46%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.59%EV -12.10%E -6.54%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-17 02:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.75% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 48.25% | 0.1% | 2026-05-17 02:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.9% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83% | 2.5% | 2026-05-17 02:38 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15% | 4.0% | 2026-05-17 02:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83% | 4.9% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83% | 4.9% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.17% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.83% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.29% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.85% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 00:10 |