The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Arman Tsarukyan v Tony Ferguson

Kickoff: 2026-06-14 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arman Tsarukyan (Local)

Prediction 96.26%1.04fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -277.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
96.26%96.26%96.26%96.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.011.011.0199.01%99.01%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tony Ferguson (Visit)

Prediction 3.74%26.74fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.107%
Kelly -0.111%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.74%3.74%3.74%3.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
26.0026.0026.0026.003.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arman Tsarukyan (Local): 96.26%; Tony Ferguson (Visit): 3.74%. For Tony Ferguson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 26.00, with an expected value of -2.78%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -2.78%E -2.75%K -277.67%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV -2.78%E -0.107%K -0.111%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-13 20:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.