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Arman Tsarukyan v Mauricio Ruffy

2026-09-20 03:30 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arman Tsarukyan (Local)

Prediction 75.91%1.32fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -10.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.05%75.91%75.91%76.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.251.251.2882.64%80.32%80.32%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mauricio Ruffy (Visit)

Prediction 24.09%4.15fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -0.912%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.22%24.09%24.09%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.853.923.924.0025.97%25.48%25.48%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arman Tsarukyan (Local): 75.91%; Mauricio Ruffy (Visit): 24.09%. For Arman Tsarukyan (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.32. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.28, with an expected value of -2.83%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -2.83%E -2.21%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -7.26%E -1.89%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 17:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -8.15%E -6.73%K -38.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -3.65%E -0.912%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-06 16:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.