Language:English
Arman Tsarukyan v Mauricio Ruffy
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arman Tsarukyan (Local)
Prediction 72.06%1.39fair odd
EV -0.561%
Edge -0.407%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%71.98%71.88%73.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.321.321.3882.64%75.79%75.76%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mauricio Ruffy (Visit)
Prediction 27.94%3.58fair odd
EV +0.595%
Edge +0.165%
Kelly +0.229%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.68%28.02%28.12%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.353.353.6033.33%29.88%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arman Tsarukyan (Local): 72.06%; Mauricio Ruffy (Visit): 27.94%. For Mauricio Ruffy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.595%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV +0.595%E +0.165%K +0.229%G +0.001% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.61%E -4.28%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +0.595%E +0.165%K +0.229%G +0.001% | 4.1% | 2026-09-18 15:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.21%EV -5.61%E -4.28%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV +0.036%E +0.010%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-20 00:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.61%E -4.28%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -2.20%E -0.628%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-20 02:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.33%E -4.87%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.20%E -0.628%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 02:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.33%E -4.87%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.20%E -0.628%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 02:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.33%E -4.87%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.60%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 02:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.33%E -4.87%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.60%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 14:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -8.49%E -6.68%K -31.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -3.60%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-19 20:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.44%E -2.57%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.16%E -3.13%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-20 02:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 02:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.61%E -4.28%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-18 09:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.33%E -4.87%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-20 02:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -9.93%E -7.94%K -39.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -4.99%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.67%EV -3.44%E -2.57%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.33%EV -5.27%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 02:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.16%E -3.13%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 08:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 08:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 09:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 09:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 09:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 09:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 09:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.88%E -3.70%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -6.39%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-18 08:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51%EV -0.561%E -0.407%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV -7.79%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-20 02:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -2.00%E -1.47%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -7.79%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-20 02:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.93%EV -3.44%E -2.57%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.07%EV -8.63%E -2.64%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.00%E -1.47%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -9.19%E -2.83%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.00%E -1.47%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -9.19%E -2.83%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -3.44%E -2.57%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -10.58%E -3.31%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 02:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -2.00%E -1.47%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -11.98%E -3.80%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-20 02:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.27%EV -8.49%E -6.68%K -31.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.98%E -3.80%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 71.60%EV -12.81%E -10.59%K -61.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.40%EV -14.77%E -4.84%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-09-18 09:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.00%E -1.47%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -16.17%E -5.39%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.00%E -1.47%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -16.17%E -5.39%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 74.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.96% | 0.0% | 2026-09-20 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-09-20 02:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| Novig◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.92% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 29.08% | 1.4% | 2026-09-20 02:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40% | 2.8% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |