The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Arbi Chakaev v Dominik Herold

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arbi Chakaev (Local)

Prediction 27.82%3.59fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.65%27.82%27.82%27.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.403.403.4529.85%29.41%29.41%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dominik Herold (Visit)

Prediction 72.18%1.39fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -3.01%
Kelly -12.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.18%72.18%72.18%72.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.311.311.3378.13%76.63%76.63%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arbi Chakaev (Local): 27.82%; Dominik Herold (Visit): 72.18%. For Arbi Chakaev (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -4.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -4.01%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.01%E -3.01%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-18 15:30
Grosvenor3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -6.79%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -7.62%E -5.95%K -27.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-16 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.