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Aori Qileng v Kai Asakura

2026-08-29 10:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aori Qileng (Local)

Prediction 22.91%4.37fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.349%
Kelly -0.454%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.08%23.13%22.98%24.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.054.104.3027.78%24.68%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kai Asakura (Visit)

Prediction 77.09%1.30fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -14.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.16%76.87%77.02%77.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.231.241.2584.03%81.30%80.65%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aori Qileng (Local): 22.91%; Kai Asakura (Visit): 77.09%. For Aori Qileng (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.30, with an expected value of -1.50%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52%EV -1.50%E -0.349%K -0.454%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48%EV -3.63%E -2.91%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-20 15:29
Betclic (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -3.79%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -8.26%E -6.94%K -43.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-20 16:38
Pinnacle🎯4.19I 23.87%NM 22.98%EV -4.02%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.02%EV -3.63%E -2.91%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-20 17:55
TABtouch🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 16:04
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 16:04
BetRivers🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 16:04
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 16:04
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 16:04
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 16:04
Bally Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 16:04
betPARX🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.08%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-20 16:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.37%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.40%E -3.55%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-20 17:49
ReBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.52%E -2.41%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -5.95%E -4.87%K -27.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 17:54
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -14.10%E -3.76%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.91%EV -8.26%E -6.94%K -43.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 16:04
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -17.53%E -4.87%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.16%EV -8.26%E -6.94%K -43.47%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎3.92I 25.51%NM 20.33%1.00I 100.00%NM 79.67%25.5%2026-08-20 17:49

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯4.17I 23.98%NM 22.41%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.76%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%7.0%2026-08-20 16:14

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