The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Antonio Monteiro v Tyshawn Williams

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 23:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Antonio Monteiro (Local)

Prediction 30.40%3.29fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.373%
Kelly -0.538%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.15%30.40%32.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.153.163.2535.46%31.76%31.65%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tyshawn Williams (Visit)

Prediction 69.60%1.44fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -10.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.63%69.85%69.60%70.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.351.3875.19%73.77%74.07%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Antonio Monteiro (Local): 30.40%; Tyshawn Williams (Visit): 69.60%. For Antonio Monteiro (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.21%E -0.373%K -0.538%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.73%E -5.02%K -19.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 13:35
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.21%E -0.373%K -0.538%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.73%E -5.02%K -19.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 13:41
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.21%E -0.373%K -0.538%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.73%E -5.02%K -19.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 13:35
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -2.73%E -0.854%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.43%E -5.58%K -22.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 23:15
Pinnacle🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.40%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.60%EV -3.95%E -2.86%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-15 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.40%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.60%EV -3.95%E -2.86%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-15 23:13
FanDuel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.25%E -1.35%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.95%E -2.86%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-15 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 21:15
ReBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.37%EV -14.28%E -5.06%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.63%EV -6.04%E -4.47%K -17.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.57%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.43%0.0%2026-09-15 22:30
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%0.9%2026-09-15 23:15
ProphetX◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%3.4%2026-09-15 23:15
Novig◎2.99I 33.44%NM 31.11%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.89%7.5%2026-09-15 23:15