Language:English
Anna Melisano v Dione Barbosa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Anna Melisano (Local)
Prediction 16.70%5.99fair odd
EV +8.53%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.132%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.70%16.65%16.55%18.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.695.806.5020.00%17.58%17.24%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dione Barbosa (Visit)
Prediction 83.30%1.20fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -14.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.04%83.35%83.45%85.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.151.151.1789.29%87.06%86.96%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anna Melisano (Local): 16.70%; Dione Barbosa (Visit): 83.30%. For Anna Melisano (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.99. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.53%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +8.53%E +1.31%K +1.55%G +0.132% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -6.70%E -5.98%K -55.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV +3.52%E +0.568%K +0.678%G +0.024% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -6.70%E -5.98%K -55.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-16 12:50 |
| Caesars | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.185%E +0.031%K +0.037%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.04%E -4.42%K -35.97%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-18 20:57 |
| Pinnacle | 5.99I 16.69%NM 16.22%EV +0.018%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.78%EV -3.37%E -2.90%K -21.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| DraftKings | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV -1.48%E -0.252%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-18 21:00 |
| Bovada | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.43%EV -2.32%E -0.397%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.57%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-18 20:04 |
| FanDuel | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 16:50 |
| Grosvenor | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| BetRivers | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| TABtouch | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| Unibet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| Bally Bet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| betPARX | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -3.15%E -0.544%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| BetMGM | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -3.99%E -0.694%K -0.840%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 12:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -3.99%E -0.694%K -0.840%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| BetUS | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.99%E -0.694%K -0.840%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.04%E -4.42%K -35.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 21:00 |
| SportsBet | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.99%E -0.694%K -0.840%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.04%E -4.42%K -35.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 14:05 |
| Coolbet | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -8.16%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -2.54%E -2.17%K -14.92%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-15 14:19 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.16%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 20:35 |
| Betway | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.16%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-16 13:20 |
| Bet Right | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.16%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.20%E -3.65%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 17:05 |
| PlayUp | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.16%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.04%E -4.42%K -35.97%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-18 04:25 |
| BetAnything | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.16%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.70%E -5.98%K -55.84%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-18 21:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -12.34%E -2.35%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -3.37%E -2.90%K -21.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-17 23:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.51%E -3.30%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.54%E -2.17%K -14.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-16 07:45 |
| Paddy Power | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.51%E -3.30%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.54%E -2.17%K -14.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-16 07:50 |
| Betr (AU) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -16.51%E -3.30%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.37%E -2.90%K -21.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-17 23:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 6.82I 14.66%NM 14.64% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.36% | 0.1% | 2026-07-18 21:00 |
| Matchbook | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-07-18 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-07-18 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-07-18 21:05 |
| Polymarket | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 0.7% | 2026-07-18 20:40 |
| Novig | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 0.7% | 2026-07-18 21:05 |
| Kalshi | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 0.7% | 2026-07-18 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 1.4% | 2026-07-18 21:05 |
| ProphetX | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60% | 2.6% | 2026-07-18 21:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.18% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83% | 9.0% | 2026-07-16 07:50 |