The School of Odds
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Andre Fili v Vinicius Oliveira

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 00:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Andre Fili (Local)

Prediction 29.40%3.40fair odd
EV -0.027%
Edge -0.008%
Kelly -0.011%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.97%29.40%29.50%31.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.303.4033.33%30.82%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vinicius Oliveira (Visit)

Prediction 70.60%1.42fair odd
EV -0.459%
Edge -0.326%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.17%70.60%70.50%72.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.351.351.4175.76%74.28%74.07%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Andre Fili (Local): 29.40%; Vinicius Oliveira (Visit): 70.60%. For Andre Fili (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.401. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.400, with an expected value of -0.027%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -0.027%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -3.99%E -2.93%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-21 00:09
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.027%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 12:30
Bet Right🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.027%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.81%E -5.16%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-20 23:40
Coolbet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -1.50%E -0.447%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-17 22:30
Pinnacle🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 29.09%EV -1.79%E -0.536%K -0.766%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.91%EV -3.28%E -2.40%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-21 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-20 23:00
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-20 22:59
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:30
Grosvenor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:30
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:30
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:30
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:30
Fliff🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.81%E -5.16%K -21.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-20 15:39
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.99%E -2.93%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-21 00:09
Caesars🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.99%E -2.93%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-20 22:06
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-20 11:59
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-20 20:39
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.28%E -2.40%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-21 00:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.40%E -4.03%K -15.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-20 19:20
BetAnything🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.40%E -4.03%K -15.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-21 00:09
SportsBet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -6.50%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -3.99%E -2.93%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-21 00:09
888sport🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-20 20:30
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.99%E -2.93%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 18:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-20 23:19
BetUS🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -11.20%E -3.71%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -0.459%E -0.326%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-21 00:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.99%E -2.93%K -11.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-21 00:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.99%E -2.93%K -11.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-21 00:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎3.45I 28.99%NM 29.01%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.99%-0.1%2026-06-21 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%0.7%2026-06-20 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%0.7%2026-06-20 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%0.7%2026-06-20 23:40
Matchbook◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%0.7%2026-06-21 00:00
ProphetX◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.21%1.7%2026-06-21 00:10
Novig◎3.08I 32.47%NM 31.86%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.14%1.9%2026-06-21 00:10
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%1.39I 71.94%NM 70.55%2.0%2026-06-20 23:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 26.88%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.28%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.8%2026-06-20 23:50