Language:English
Andre Fili v Kai Kamaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Andre Fili (Local)
Prediction 54.99%1.82fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%55.38%54.59%59.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.701.681.7865.36%58.97%59.52%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kai Kamaka (Visit)
Prediction 45.01%2.22fair odd
EV +8.03%
Edge +3.35%
Kelly +5.74%
Growth +0.460%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.15%44.62%45.41%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.4050.00%46.45%46.51%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Andre Fili (Local): 54.99%; Kai Kamaka (Visit): 45.01%. For Kai Kamaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.03%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -11.47%E -7.12%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +8.03%E +3.35%K +5.74%G +0.460% | 3.8% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -13.12%E -8.30%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV +5.78%E +2.46%K +4.28%G +0.247% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 23:31 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -8.72%E -5.25%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-10 15:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -10.92%E -6.74%K -17.61%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -0.973%E -0.442%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -5.97%E -3.49%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -1.42%E -0.650%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -7.07%E -4.18%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -1.87%E -0.859%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.32%E -2.48%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.77%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.97%E -3.49%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.52%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 00:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.52%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -9.82%E -5.99%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-10 19:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -2.12%E -1.19%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -3.67%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%EV -2.67%E -1.51%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%EV -4.57%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -2.67%E -1.51%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV -5.02%E -2.38%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -2.67%E -1.51%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV -5.02%E -2.38%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.67%E -1.51%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 00:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.67%E -1.51%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.67%E -1.51%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.67%E -1.51%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.77%E -2.16%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-11 00:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.77%E -2.16%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.90%EV -15.87%E -10.37%K -29.94%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.10%EV -9.08%E -4.49%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.67%E -1.51%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 00:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.52%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 00:31 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.52%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05% | -0.0% | 2026-10-11 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 00:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 00:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.36% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.77% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 23:20 |