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Amru Magomedov v Joel Alvarez

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 23:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Amru Magomedov (Local)

Prediction 92.66%1.08fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -4.43%
Kelly -152.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.13%92.66%93.57%96.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.031.0399.01%97.90%97.09%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joel Alvarez (Visit)

Prediction 7.34%13.62fair odd
EV +90.95%
Edge +3.50%
Kelly +3.64%
Growth +3.31%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.74%7.34%6.43%11.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.5015.2113.0026.0013.33%6.57%7.69%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Amru Magomedov (Local): 92.66%; Joel Alvarez (Visit): 7.34%. For Joel Alvarez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.62. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +90.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -6.42%E -6.35%K -641.78%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +90.95%E +3.50%K +3.64%G +3.31%2.9%2026-07-31 22:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -6.42%E -6.35%K -641.78%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +39.54%E +2.08%K +2.20%G +0.869%4.3%2026-07-31 23:24
FanDuel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.56%E -4.43%K -152.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +10.17%E +0.678%K +0.726%G +0.074%3.8%2026-07-31 13:20
Unibet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.56%E -4.43%K -152.16%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -4.52%E -0.348%K -0.377%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-29 16:35
Grosvenor🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.56%E -4.43%K -152.16%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -4.52%E -0.348%K -0.377%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-29 16:35
Bally Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.56%E -4.43%K -152.16%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -4.52%E -0.348%K -0.377%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-29 16:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.13%EV -6.42%E -6.35%K -641.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -44.92%E -5.99%K -6.91%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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