Language:English
Amanda Lemos v Alexia Thainara
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Amanda Lemos (Local)
Prediction 27.64%3.62fair odd
EV +2.29%
Edge +0.618%
Kelly +0.846%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.70%27.79%27.67%30.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.403.383.7032.79%29.37%29.63%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexia Thainara (Visit)
Prediction 72.36%1.38fair odd
EV -0.873%
Edge -0.637%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.16%72.21%72.33%74.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.311.321.3779.37%76.08%75.76%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Amanda Lemos (Local): 27.64%; Alexia Thainara (Visit): 72.36%. For Amanda Lemos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.29%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +2.29%E +0.618%K +0.846%G +0.019% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.39%E -5.77%K -26.38%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.51%EV +1.18%E +0.322%K +0.443%G +0.005% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.49%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-09 00:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.479%E -0.133%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 00:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.479%E -0.133%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.479%E -0.133%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.479%E -0.133%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 00:33 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -0.479%E -0.133%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 00:32 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -0.479%E -0.133%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 00:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -1.31%E -0.367%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -2.14%E -0.604%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.24%E -0.927%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.24%E -0.927%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.41%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-09 00:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-08 21:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 00:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.29%EV -8.22%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.71%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 00:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.15%E -3.12%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.15%E -3.12%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-09 00:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -10.98%E -3.41%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -0.873%E -0.637%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-06 15:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.54%E -3.61%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.75%EV -8.83%E -7.01%K -33.97%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-09 00:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.30%E -4.61%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.60%E -1.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.07%EV -15.13%E -4.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.93%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-09 00:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -15.68%E -5.14%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -1.60%E -1.17%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 11:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.68I 27.17%NM 27.13% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.87% | 0.2% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Novig◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 1.2% | 2026-08-09 00:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29% | 2.6% | 2026-08-09 00:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.42% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 00:38 |
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