The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alvi Dasuyev v Jaden Ortega

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 00:38 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alvi Dasuyev (Local)

Prediction 70.89%1.41fair odd
EV -0.757%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.18%70.56%70.89%72.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.4076.92%73.95%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jaden Ortega (Visit)

Prediction 29.11%3.43fair odd
EV +1.02%
Edge +0.294%
Kelly +0.413%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.71%29.44%29.11%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.153.4733.33%31.50%31.75%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alvi Dasuyev (Local): 70.89%; Jaden Ortega (Visit): 29.11%. For Jaden Ortega (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -5.72%E -4.30%K -17.33%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV +1.02%E +0.294%K +0.413%G +0.004%4.0%2026-09-23 00:35
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.30%E -3.19%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.47%E -0.739%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-23 00:35
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.59%E -2.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.39%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-22 23:20
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.59%E -2.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.30%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 00:15
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.59%E -2.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.30%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 00:15
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.59%E -2.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.30%E -2.63%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 00:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -4.30%E -3.19%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -11.21%E -3.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-23 00:34
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -0.757%E -0.541%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-22 12:29
ReBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.85%E -6.04%K -26.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-23 00:37
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%2.96I 33.78%NM 30.84%9.5%2026-09-23 00:35