Language:English
Allan Nascimento v Mitch Raposo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Allan Nascimento (Local)
Prediction 58.59%1.71fair odd
EV -0.975%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.78%58.83%58.67%62.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.601.621.6968.03%62.45%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mitch Raposo (Visit)
Prediction 41.41%2.42fair odd
EV +5.17%
Edge +2.04%
Kelly +3.36%
Growth +0.174%
assuming max odds 2.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.13%41.17%41.33%43.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.302.302.5446.73%43.43%43.48%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Allan Nascimento (Local): 58.59%; Mitch Raposo (Visit): 41.41%. For Mitch Raposo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -12.11%E -8.07%K -24.22%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV +5.17%E +2.04%K +3.36%G +0.174% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -12.11%E -8.07%K -24.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +3.51%E +1.41%K +2.34%G +0.082% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -9.18%E -5.92%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV +1.44%E +0.589%K +0.995%G +0.014% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -8.01%E -5.10%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -0.628%E -0.261%K -0.448%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 12:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -4.49%E -2.75%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -1.04%E -0.436%K -0.749%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.82%EV -13.87%E -9.43%K -29.50%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -1.46%E -0.612%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.08%E -3.13%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.70%E -1.15%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-20 22:48 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.42%E -4.70%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -2.70%E -1.15%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 13:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -4.49%E -2.75%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -3.11%E -1.33%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -8.01%E -5.10%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -3.94%E -1.70%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.08%E -3.13%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.35%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -1.56%E -0.929%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-06-20 22:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.08%E -3.13%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 22:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.25%E -3.91%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.59%E -5.51%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.18%E -5.92%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-20 22:48 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.18%E -5.92%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-20 22:48 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -2.73%E -1.65%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -5.18%E -2.26%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -2.15%E -1.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -6.42%E -2.84%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.32%E -2.01%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 22:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.32%E -2.01%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 22:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.32%E -2.01%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 22:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.08%E -3.13%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-20 20:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -8.59%E -5.51%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -8.59%E -5.51%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -0.975%E -0.577%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -8.08%E -3.64%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-20 21:57 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.15%E -1.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 21:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.08%E -3.13%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -5.08%E -3.13%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%EV -11.39%E -5.32%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -5.08%E -3.13%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%EV -11.39%E -5.32%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26% | 0.1% | 2026-06-20 22:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47% | 1.3% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.5% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17% | 2.1% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 22:49 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01% | 5.8% | 2026-06-20 22:50 |