Language:English
Allan Nascimento v Mitch Raposo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Allan Nascimento (Local)
Prediction 63.05%1.59fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.58%63.23%62.96%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.511.531.5680.00%66.42%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mitch Raposo (Visit)
Prediction 36.95%2.71fair odd
EV +47.80%
Edge +11.95%
Kelly +15.93%
Growth +7.62%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%36.77%37.04%38.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.612.554.0040.00%38.26%39.22%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Allan Nascimento (Local): 63.05%; Mitch Raposo (Visit): 36.95%. For Mitch Raposo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +47.80%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -21.19%E -16.95%K -84.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +47.80%E +11.95%K +15.93%G +7.62% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 22:23 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -15.51%E -11.58%K -45.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +18.24%E +5.70%K +8.29%G +1.51% | 5.9% | 2026-04-11 13:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.21%E -6.40%K -20.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +1.62%E +0.587%K +0.923%G +0.015% | 5.8% | 2026-04-13 12:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -6.06%E -4.07%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -0.232%E -0.086%K -0.137%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-13 17:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -6.69%E -4.52%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -1.71%E -0.643%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 16:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.80%E -3.18%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.08%E -0.785%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-14 16:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.69%E -4.52%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.08%E -0.785%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 17:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.69%E -4.52%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.08%E -0.785%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 17:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -6.06%E -4.07%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -2.45%E -0.928%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 22:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.43%E -3.62%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -2.82%E -1.07%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-13 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.06%E -4.07%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -2.82%E -1.07%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-13 21:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.06%E -4.07%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -2.82%E -1.07%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-13 21:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.43%E -3.62%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.19%E -1.22%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-13 18:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.93%E -1.51%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-16 12:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.43%E -3.62%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.93%E -1.51%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 20:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.43%E -3.62%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.93%E -1.51%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 22:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.43%E -3.62%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.93%E -1.51%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 08:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.64%E -1.05%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -5.77%E -2.26%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-16 20:13 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.77%E -2.26%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-14 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.77%E -2.26%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-14 12:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.77%E -2.26%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-14 12:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.06%E -4.07%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.77%E -2.26%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 21:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.10%EV -2.27%E -1.47%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.90%EV -6.14%E -2.42%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-17 14:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -2.90%E -1.89%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -6.14%E -2.42%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-16 20:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -1.64%E -1.05%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -6.51%E -2.57%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-16 20:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -1.64%E -1.05%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-16 20:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.54%E -2.31%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.17%E -2.74%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 12:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.43%E -3.62%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.62%E -3.05%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 14:57 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43% | 0.2% | 2026-04-16 15:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-04-16 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.20% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 1.5% | 2026-04-17 08:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.20% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 1.5% | 2026-04-17 08:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.20% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 1.5% | 2026-04-17 08:33 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.80% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20% | 3.1% | 2026-04-16 20:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.05% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.95% | 10.7% | 2026-04-17 15:54 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 38.61% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 61.39% | 62.9% | 2026-04-17 15:54 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.88% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 35.87% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25% | 8.5% | 2026-04-17 07:29 |