The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Aline Pereira v Smilla Sundell

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 00:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aline Pereira (Local)

Prediction 22.04%4.54fair odd
EV +3.60%
Edge +0.766%
Kelly +0.973%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%22.08%21.58%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.364.504.7028.57%22.95%22.22%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Smilla Sundell (Visit)

Prediction 77.96%1.28fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -10.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.47%77.92%78.42%79.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.211.2584.75%82.24%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aline Pereira (Local): 22.04%; Smilla Sundell (Visit): 77.96%. For Aline Pereira (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.54. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV +3.60%E +0.766%K +0.973%G +0.035%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -5.67%E -4.69%K -27.01%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-14 00:00
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +1.40%E +0.304%K +0.388%G +0.005%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -5.67%E -4.69%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-13 23:49
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +1.40%E +0.304%K +0.388%G +0.005%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -5.67%E -4.69%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-13 23:50
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +1.40%E +0.304%K +0.388%G +0.005%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -5.67%E -4.69%K -27.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-13 23:50
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.807%E -0.179%K -0.231%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.89%E -4.01%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-14 00:41
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -0.807%E -0.179%K -0.231%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -8.01%E -6.79%K -44.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-14 00:24
Pinnacle🎯4.47I 22.37%NM 21.58%EV -1.47%E -0.329%K -0.423%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.42%EV -4.11%E -3.34%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-13 23:45
Unibet (UK)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.62%E -2.35%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.33%E -2.69%K -13.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 00:44
BetOnline.ag🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.83%E -2.96%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.55%E -2.04%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 00:45
ReBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -22.85%E -6.53%K -9.14%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.47%EV -6.45%E -5.38%K -32.26%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-14 00:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.17I 23.98%NM 24.04%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.96%-0.3%2026-10-14 00:25
Polymarket◎4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23%0.9%2026-10-14 00:25
Novig◎4.08I 24.51%NM 23.74%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.26%3.2%2026-10-14 00:25
ProphetX◎3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.74%11.5%2026-10-14 00:44