The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Alice Pereira v Darya Zheleznyakova

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 21:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alice Pereira (Local)

Prediction 55.24%1.81fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -3.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.32%55.27%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.721.731.7663.69%58.21%57.80%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Darya Zheleznyakova (Visit)

Prediction 44.76%2.23fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.694%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%44.68%44.73%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.112.102.2051.81%47.29%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alice Pereira (Local): 55.24%; Darya Zheleznyakova (Visit): 44.76%. For Darya Zheleznyakova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -1.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -2.78%E -1.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -3.32%E -1.54%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-10 21:31
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.88%E -2.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-10 18:25
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.88%E -2.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-10 21:40
Coolbet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.88%E -2.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-10 15:00
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.88%E -2.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.21%E -1.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 21:30
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.88%E -2.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.21%E -1.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 21:34
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.88%E -2.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 20:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.88%E -2.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 21:04
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.88%E -2.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 21:35
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 21:05
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 21:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 21:04
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 21:04
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 21:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 21:04
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 21:04
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 21:05
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.44%E -2.56%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 20:55
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -4.99%E -2.90%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -2.42%E -1.11%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-10 20:01
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -4.99%E -2.90%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -2.87%E -1.32%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 21:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.99%E -2.90%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 21:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.54%E -3.24%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -1.53%E -0.694%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 21:40
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.54%E -3.24%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 21:40
Betsson🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.54%E -3.24%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.11%E -2.41%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.64%E -3.93%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 21:40
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.75%E -4.64%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 15:50
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.75%E -4.64%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 16:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.75%E -4.64%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.00%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 23:00
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.14%EV -13.27%E -8.45%K -23.29%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.86%EV -13.61%E -7.05%K -14.64%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-10 21:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-10-10 21:40
Novig◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-10-10 21:40
Polymarket◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-10-10 21:35
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-10-10 21:40
ProphetX◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-10-10 21:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 38.73%1.10I 90.91%NM 61.27%48.4%2026-10-10 21:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 38.73%1.10I 90.91%NM 61.27%48.4%2026-10-10 21:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.54%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.23%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.23%9.2%2026-10-10 21:24