Language:English
Alice Ardelean v Polyana Viana
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alice Ardelean (Local)
Prediction 62.53%1.60fair odd
EV +0.041%
Edge +0.026%
Kelly +0.068%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.20%62.57%62.38%65.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.531.531.6068.03%65.44%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Polyana Viana (Visit)
Prediction 37.47%2.67fair odd
EV +3.05%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.75%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.83%37.43%37.62%39.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.532.502.7542.02%39.47%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alice Ardelean (Local): 62.53%; Polyana Viana (Visit): 37.47%. For Polyana Viana (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.05%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -8.09%E -5.50%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +3.05%E +1.11%K +1.75%G +0.053% | 4.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -8.09%E -5.50%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +3.05%E +1.11%K +1.75%G +0.053% | 4.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.693%E -0.261%K -0.420%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-16 21:58 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -0.693%E -0.261%K -0.420%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -0.693%E -0.261%K -0.420%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -1.44%E -0.548%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-16 21:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.82%E -0.694%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.74%EV -3.09%E -1.99%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.26%EV -2.19%E -0.840%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.57%E -0.987%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.46%E -5.04%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -2.57%E -0.987%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV -2.94%E -1.14%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.38%EV -3.09%E -1.99%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.62%EV -3.69%E -1.44%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.71%E -2.41%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.44%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.46%E -1.58%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.34%E -2.83%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.96%E -3.26%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.21%E -4.14%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.31%E -2.53%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -1.83%E -1.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -7.81%E -3.18%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV +0.041%E +0.026%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -9.31%E -3.85%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -1.83%E -1.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -9.69%E -4.02%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -1.83%E -1.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -10.81%E -4.54%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -1.83%E -1.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -10.81%E -4.54%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74% | 0.1% | 2026-05-16 21:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 0.3% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
| Novig◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.62% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 36.38% | 1.4% | 2026-05-16 21:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02% | 3.1% | 2026-05-16 22:01 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 35.87% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 21:47 |