Language:English
Alexia Thainara v Bruna Brasil
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexia Thainara (Local)
Prediction 84.26%1.19fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -20.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.83%84.53%84.21%86.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.131.131.1590.91%88.53%88.50%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bruna Brasil (Visit)
Prediction 15.74%6.35fair odd
EV +14.15%
Edge +1.95%
Kelly +2.26%
Growth +0.320%
assuming max odds 7.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.17%15.47%15.79%17.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.166.227.2518.18%16.22%16.06%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexia Thainara (Local): 84.26%; Bruna Brasil (Visit): 15.74%. For Bruna Brasil (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.35. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.15%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -7.32%E -6.65%K -73.19%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV +14.15%E +1.95%K +2.26%G +0.320% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 13:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -7.32%E -6.65%K -73.19%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV +14.15%E +1.95%K +2.26%G +0.320% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 13:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -6.48%E -5.84%K -58.88%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +10.21%E +1.46%K +1.70%G +0.174% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 13:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.40%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.95%G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.60%EV +3.13%E +0.478%K +0.564%G +0.018% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 15:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +2.34%E +0.360%K +0.426%G +0.010% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 16:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +2.34%E +0.360%K +0.426%G +0.010% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 14:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +2.34%E +0.360%K +0.426%G +0.010% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 14:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-25 15:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.95%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -1.59%E -0.255%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-28 02:51 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.35%EV -3.11%E -2.70%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.65%EV -2.38%E -0.384%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.95%E -3.46%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.95%E -3.46%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 21:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.95%E -3.46%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-28 01:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.95%E -3.46%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 13:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-25 17:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 13:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 13:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.53%E -0.922%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 22:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.80%EV -3.11%E -2.70%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.20%EV -6.32%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-23 17:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -7.10%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-25 03:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.05%EV -6.48%E -5.84%K -58.88%G +0.000% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 15.95%EV -7.89%E -1.35%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-26 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -3.11%E -2.70%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -8.68%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-25 11:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -3.11%E -2.70%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -8.68%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-25 11:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.95%E -3.46%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.47%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-24 01:38 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.95%E -3.46%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.47%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-28 02:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -9.47%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 01:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.95%E -3.46%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -13.40%E -2.44%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 17:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.95%E -3.46%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -13.40%E -2.44%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 17:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-27 22:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.35% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65% | 2.2% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.29% | 6.17I 16.21%NM 15.71% | 3.2% | 2026-03-28 02:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.14% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.86% | 3.3% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.65% | 6.68I 14.97%NM 13.69% | 55.00I 1.82%NM 1.66% | 9.4% | 2026-03-27 20:50 |