Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Shabliy v Alfie Davis

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 03:15 UTC

Final: Alexander Shabliy 1–0 Alfie Davis

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

83%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Shabliy (Local)

Prediction 82.77%1.21fair odd

EV -2.33%

Edge -1.98%

Kelly -12.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.50%82.77%82.77%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.151.151.1887.72%86.71%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alfie Davis (Visit)

Prediction 17.23%5.80fair odd

EV +3.39%

Edge +0.564%

Kelly +0.677%

Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.97%17.23%17.23%18.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.205.375.256.0019.23%18.63%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Shabliy (Local): 82.77%; Alfie Davis (Visit): 17.23%. For Alfie Davis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.64%E -4.95%K -40.31%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +3.39%E +0.564%K +0.677%G +0.023%	4.4%	2026-06-28 02:20
Grosvenor🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.82%E -4.19%K -32.10%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.54%E -1.82%K -2.24%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-28 02:20
LeoVegas🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.82%E -4.19%K -32.10%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.54%E -1.82%K -2.24%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-28 02:19
Unibet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.82%E -4.19%K -32.10%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.54%E -1.82%K -2.24%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-28 02:19
Bally Bet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.82%E -4.19%K -32.10%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.54%E -1.82%K -2.24%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-28 02:19
FanDuel🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -2.33%E -1.98%K -12.96%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -10.40%E -2.00%K -2.48%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-06-28 02:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.