The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alex Volkanovski v Movsar Evloev

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 20:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Volkanovski (Local)

Prediction 49.51%2.02fair odd
EV +3.98%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +3.62%
Growth +0.144%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.56%49.30%49.73%51.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.901.892.1057.47%52.54%52.91%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Movsar Evloev (Visit)

Prediction 50.49%1.98fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.68%50.70%50.27%53.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.881.891.9657.47%53.05%52.91%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Volkanovski (Local): 49.51%; Movsar Evloev (Visit): 50.49%. For Alex Volkanovski (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.98%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV +3.98%E +1.89%K +3.62%G +0.144%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -7.61%E -4.16%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.3%2026-10-24 20:49
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV +2.49%E +1.20%K +2.33%G +0.058%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -6.10%E -3.28%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-24 20:45
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -0.973%E -0.487%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -6.10%E -3.28%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 20:44
Bovada🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.23%EV -2.46%E -1.25%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.77%EV -3.57%E -1.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-24 20:39
ReBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.96%EV -2.46%E -1.25%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.04%EV -4.58%E -2.42%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 20:40
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -2.95%E -1.51%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.60%E -3.57%K -7.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 19:45
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.45%E -1.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.59%E -2.99%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.45%E -1.77%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.59%E -2.99%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 20:40
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.07%E -1.60%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 18:10
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.43%E -2.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.57%E -1.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 19:50
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.43%E -2.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.57%E -1.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-19 01:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.43%E -2.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.57%E -1.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 19:45
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.43%E -2.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.59%E -2.99%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 20:45
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.43%E -2.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.61%E -4.16%K -9.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.92%E -3.12%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.08%E -2.15%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 22:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.92%E -3.12%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.08%E -2.15%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 22:00
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.92%E -3.12%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.08%E -2.15%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 22:01
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.92%E -3.12%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.08%E -2.15%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 13:55
FanDuel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -1.05%E -0.534%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.42%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 22:00
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.42%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.42%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 22:00
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.42%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 22:00
Bally Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.42%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 22:00
Betsson🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.42%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 05:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.42%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 22:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%EV -6.42%E -3.40%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.92%EV -11.65%E -6.66%K -15.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 20:41
SportsBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -6.91%E -3.68%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -1.05%E -0.534%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.46%EV -6.91%E -3.68%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.54%EV -7.10%E -3.86%K -8.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 20:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -7.41%E -3.96%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -1.55%E -0.796%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 14:00
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -7.41%E -3.96%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -1.55%E -0.796%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 12:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -7.41%E -3.96%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -2.06%E -1.06%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 12:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -8.40%E -4.54%K -9.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -1.55%E -0.796%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 13:40
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.39%E -5.13%K -11.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.57%E -1.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:20
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.39%E -5.13%K -11.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.57%E -1.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.39%E -5.13%K -11.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.57%E -1.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.74%EV -9.39%E -5.13%K -11.31%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.26%EV -12.15%E -6.98%K -16.42%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 20:47
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.00%EV -13.85%E -7.96%K -18.71%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.00%EV -12.15%E -6.98%K -16.42%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-03 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.50%1.94I 51.55%NM 51.50%0.1%2026-10-24 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%0.4%2026-10-24 20:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%0.4%2026-10-24 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%0.6%2026-10-24 20:45
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%0.6%2026-10-24 20:49
Polymarket◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-10-24 20:45
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-10-24 20:45
Novig◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%1.2%2026-10-24 20:45
ProphetX◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%3.2%2026-10-24 20:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.94%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.46%7.2%2026-10-24 19:50