The School of Odds
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Alex Perez v Su Mudaerji

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 11:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Perez (Local)

Prediction 57.43%1.74fair odd
EV +0.495%
Edge +0.283%
Kelly +0.659%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.78%57.25%57.47%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.651.7563.69%60.27%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Su Mudaerji (Visit)

Prediction 42.57%2.35fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.529%
Kelly -0.930%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.18%42.75%42.53%45.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.252.3247.62%44.88%44.44%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Perez (Local): 57.43%; Su Mudaerji (Visit): 42.57%. For Alex Perez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.495%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV +0.495%E +0.283%K +0.659%G +0.003%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -9.74%E -4.60%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-29 15:29
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV +0.495%E +0.283%K +0.659%G +0.003%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -9.74%E -4.60%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-29 15:29
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -1.23%E -0.714%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -7.19%E -3.30%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-19 05:09
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -1.80%E -1.05%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-30 11:08
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.38%E -1.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.46%E -3.94%K -7.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 04:30
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.54%EV -2.95%E -1.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.46%EV -2.50%E -1.09%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 11:10
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.53%E -2.10%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.63%E -2.07%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-30 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.10%E -2.45%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.08%E -0.904%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 11:09
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.10%E -2.45%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.78%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-30 11:10
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.10%E -2.45%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-30 10:57
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.10%E -2.45%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 11:10
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.10%E -2.45%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 10:50
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.10%E -2.45%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 11:10
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.10%E -2.45%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.46%E -3.94%K -7.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 11:07
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.25%E -3.18%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 08:50
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.25%E -3.18%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.25%E -3.18%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 11:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.25%E -3.18%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 08:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.25%E -3.18%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.59%E -5.04%K -9.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 10:58
FanDuel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -1.23%E -0.529%K -0.930%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-30 10:59
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 08:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 08:40
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 08:40
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 08:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 08:40
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 08:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 08:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.82%E -3.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 08:50
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.40%E -3.92%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -2.08%E -0.904%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-30 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.97%E -4.30%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 10:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.97%E -4.30%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 10:59
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.54%E -4.69%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.08%E -0.904%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 11:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -9.84%E -6.27%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 43.14%-0.1%2026-05-30 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-05-30 11:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-05-30 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-05-30 11:10
Matchbook◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-05-30 11:10
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-05-30 11:10
Novig◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-05-30 11:10
ProphetX◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.6%2026-05-30 11:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86%7.4%2026-05-30 06:40