Language:English
Alex Perez v Su Mudaerji
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Perez (Local)
Prediction 34.40%2.91fair odd
EV -0.925%
Edge -0.321%
Kelly -0.492%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%34.43%34.52%36.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.732.752.8840.32%36.57%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Su Mudaerji (Visit)
Prediction 65.60%1.52fair odd
EV -0.946%
Edge -0.626%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.75%65.57%65.48%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.461.461.5171.94%68.66%68.73%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Perez (Local): 34.40%; Su Mudaerji (Visit): 65.60%. For Alex Perez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -0.925%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -0.925%E -0.321%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -5.54%E -3.85%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -1.61%E -0.564%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -4.88%E -3.37%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-29 11:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -1.61%E -0.564%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -6.19%E -4.33%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -1.96%E -0.687%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.88%E -3.37%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 10:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.96%E -0.687%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.54%E -3.85%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-29 10:13 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.11%EV -2.99%E -1.06%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.89%EV -4.23%E -2.89%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 09:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -2.99%E -1.06%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -4.88%E -3.37%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.68%E -1.31%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.68%E -1.31%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.23%E -2.89%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-26 17:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.68%E -1.31%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.23%E -2.89%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-26 17:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -4.36%E -1.57%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -3.57%E -2.43%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-25 20:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.41%EV -4.71%E -1.70%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.59%EV -8.82%E -6.34%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-28 21:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.40%E -1.96%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.88%E -3.37%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 10:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.40%E -1.96%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.88%E -3.37%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 10:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.40%E -1.96%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.54%E -3.85%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-25 08:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.40%E -1.96%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.54%E -3.85%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.40%E -1.96%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.54%E -3.85%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 18:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.40%E -1.96%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.54%E -3.85%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 03:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.40%E -1.96%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.54%E -3.85%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.53%EV -5.74%E -2.10%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.47%EV -0.946%E -0.626%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -7.12%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.26%E -1.52%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.12%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-29 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.12%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.88%E -3.37%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-29 11:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 00:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 17:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.23%E -2.89%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-29 11:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.23%E -2.89%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-29 05:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.84%E -3.33%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.85%E -4.82%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.25%EV -14.69%E -5.92%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.75%EV -7.51%E -5.32%K -18.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-28 16:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.87I 34.84%NM 34.77% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.23% | 0.2% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-29 11:06 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-29 11:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-29 11:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14% | 1.0% | 2026-08-29 11:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 11:06 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.56% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.57% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-08-29 10:46 |