Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Keogh v Cristiano Oliveira

2026-09-26 16:35 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Keogh (Local)

Prediction 91.29%1.10fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -3.95%

Kelly -82.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

91.29%91.29%91.29%91.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.051.051.0595.24%95.24%95.24%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cristiano Oliveira (Visit)

Prediction 8.71%11.48fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -0.377%

Kelly -0.415%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.71%8.71%8.71%8.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

11.0011.0011.0011.009.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alex Keogh (Local): 91.29%; Cristiano Oliveira (Visit): 8.71%. For Cristiano Oliveira (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.48. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 11.00, with an expected value of -4.15%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -82.99%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -4.15%E -0.377%K -0.415%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-23 20:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.