Language:English
Alessandro Costa v Stewart Nicoll
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alessandro Costa (Local)
Prediction 80.92%1.24fair odd
EV +1.96%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +7.56%
Growth +0.148%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.64%82.32%77.62%93.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.131.091.2699.01%88.16%91.74%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stewart Nicoll (Visit)
Prediction 19.08%5.24fair odd
EV +201.40%
Edge +12.75%
Kelly +13.61%
Growth +27.41%
assuming max odds 15.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.12%17.68%22.38%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.657.736.4015.8027.40%12.93%15.63%6.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alessandro Costa (Local): 80.92%; Stewart Nicoll (Visit): 19.08%. For Stewart Nicoll (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.24. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +201.40%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.88%EV -16.65%E -16.16%K -554.93%G +0.000% | 15.80I 6.33%NM 6.12%EV +201.40%E +12.75%K +13.61%G +27.41% | 3.4% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -18.27%E -18.09%K -1826.64%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +147.98%E +11.38%K +12.33%G +18.25% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -16.65%E -16.16%K -554.93%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -17.46%E -17.11%K -872.86%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +128.91%E +10.74%K +11.72%G +15.11% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +109.83%E +9.98%K +10.98%G +12.06% | 5.2% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -16.65%E -16.16%K -554.93%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +109.83%E +9.98%K +10.98%G +12.06% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -16.65%E -16.16%K -554.93%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +109.83%E +9.98%K +10.98%G +12.06% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -16.65%E -16.16%K -554.93%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +109.83%E +9.98%K +10.98%G +12.06% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -17.46%E -17.11%K -872.86%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +100.29%E +9.55%K +10.56%G +10.59% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 23:31 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -15.84%E -15.23%K -395.97%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +62.14%E +7.31%K +8.29%G +5.15% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -12.60%E -11.67%K -157.52%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +52.61%E +6.58%K +7.52%G +3.95% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -15.03%E -14.31%K -300.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +52.61%E +6.58%K +7.52%G +3.95% | 7.7% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%EV -11.79%E -10.82%K -131.03%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV +22.08%E +3.45%K +4.09%G +0.903% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 23:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.89%E -2.41%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.25%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 22:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -1.27%E -1.04%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -16.07%E -3.65%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 19:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -1.27%E -1.04%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -16.07%E -3.65%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -1.27%E -1.04%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -17.02%E -3.91%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-04 15:47 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.88%EV -0.463%E -0.377%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.12%EV -17.40%E -4.02%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-04 23:18 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV +0.346%E +0.279%K +1.44%G +0.005% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -17.97%E -4.18%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-04 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -0.463%E -0.377%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -17.97%E -4.18%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 22:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -1.27%E -1.04%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -17.97%E -4.18%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-04 20:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV +0.346%E +0.279%K +1.44%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -18.93%E -4.45%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-01 00:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV +1.96%E +1.56%K +7.56%G +0.148% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -19.88%E -4.73%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-04 23:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV +1.16%E +0.924%K +4.62%G +0.053% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -19.88%E -4.73%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-04 23:33 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV +0.346%E +0.279%K +1.44%G +0.005% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -21.79%E -5.31%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-01 00:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV +0.346%E +0.279%K +1.44%G +0.005% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -21.79%E -5.31%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-01 00:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +1.16%E +0.924%K +4.62%G +0.053% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -23.70%E -5.92%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-04 23:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +1.16%E +0.924%K +4.62%G +0.053% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -23.70%E -5.92%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-04 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +1.16%E +0.924%K +4.62%G +0.053% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -23.70%E -5.92%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 12:01 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -1.27%E -1.04%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -23.70%E -5.92%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 23:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV +0.346%E +0.279%K +1.44%G +0.005% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -24.65%E -6.24%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 23:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV +0.346%E +0.279%K +1.44%G +0.005% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -30.37%E -8.32%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 23:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.93% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 22.07% | 0.2% | 2026-04-04 23:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 99.01% | 100.00I 1.00%NM 0.99% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 23:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 2.2% | 2026-04-04 23:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:33 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 23:33 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 23:32 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.04% | 9.7% | 2026-04-04 23:21 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 77.68% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 22.32% | 28.7% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.69% | 4.11I 24.33%NM 22.47% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 18:34 |