Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alessandro Costa v Cody Durden

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 21:15 UTC

Final: Cody Durden 0–1 Alessandro Costa

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

66%

34%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alessandro Costa (Local)

Prediction 66.09%1.51fair odd

EV -1.53%

Edge -1.03%

Kelly -3.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.36%66.37%66.08%70.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.351.431.431.4974.07%70.12%69.93%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cody Durden (Visit)

Prediction 33.91%2.95fair odd

EV +11.91%

Edge +3.61%

Kelly +5.18%

Growth +0.616%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.03%33.63%33.92%35.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.832.803.3038.46%35.38%35.71%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alessandro Costa (Local): 66.09%; Cody Durden (Visit): 33.91%. For Cody Durden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.91%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -10.78%E -7.99%K -30.80%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +11.91%E +3.61%K +5.18%G +0.616%	4.4%	2026-07-11 19:29
Betsson🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -10.78%E -7.99%K -30.80%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +11.91%E +3.61%K +5.18%G +0.616%	4.4%	2026-07-11 19:29
FanDuel🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.66%E -0.571%K -0.872%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-07-10 21:10
SportsBet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.65%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.66%E -0.571%K -0.872%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-10 20:04
Bet Right🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.65%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.66%E -0.571%K -0.872%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-11 21:04
Pinnacle🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -2.85%E -1.94%K -6.06%G +0.000%	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.72%EV -2.00%E -0.691%K -1.06%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-07-11 21:05
Bovada🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -2.67%E -0.932%K -1.43%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-11 21:04
Caesars🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-11 20:02
Unibet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 23:20
betPARX🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 23:20
Bally Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 23:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 23:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.65%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-11 20:49
DraftKings🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.51%E -2.40%K -7.63%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.80%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-11 19:49
BetMGM🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.17%E -2.88%K -9.27%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.80%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-11 20:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.65%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.80%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-11 18:59
ATG (SE)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -6.81%E -4.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.80%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-11 21:04
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -1.53%E -1.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-07-11 20:30
PlayUp🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.17%E -2.88%K -9.27%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-11 19:54
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-10 20:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-10 20:05
BetAnything🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-11 20:59
Betr (AU)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-11 19:54
TABtouch🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -6.81%E -4.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-11 21:05
Grosvenor🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -6.81%E -4.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-11 21:04
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.48%E -5.34%K -18.69%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-11 21:04
Virgin Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.48%E -5.34%K -18.69%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-11 21:04
BetRivers🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.48%E -5.34%K -18.69%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-11 21:05
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -11.83%E -4.55%K -7.39%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-11 21:03

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 66.67%	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.33%	0.0%	2026-07-11 20:49
Novig◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%	1.1%	2026-07-11 21:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.4%	2026-07-11 21:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.4%	2026-07-11 21:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.4%	2026-07-11 21:05
Matchbook◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%	1.4%	2026-07-11 21:04
ProphetX◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75%	2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25%	1.4%	2026-07-11 21:05
Polymarket◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%	3.9%	2026-07-11 21:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 65.36%	2.81I 35.59%NM 32.80%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%	8.5%	2026-07-11 20:10

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.