The School of OddsAlessandro Costa v Cody Durden
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
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Head to Head
Alessandro Costa (Local)
Prediction 66.09%1.51fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.36%66.37%66.08%70.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.351.431.431.4974%70%70%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Cody Durden (Visit)
Prediction 33.91%2.95fair odd
EV +11.91%
Edge +3.61%
Kelly +5.18%
Growth +0.616%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.03%33.63%33.92%35.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.832.803.3038%35%36%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -10.78%E -7.99%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +11.91%E +3.61%K +5.18%G +0.616% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 19:29 |
| Betsson | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -10.78%E -7.99%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +11.91%E +3.61%K +5.18%G +0.616% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 19:29 |
| FanDuel | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.66%E -0.571%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-10 21:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.66%E -0.571%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-10 20:04 |
| Bet Right | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.66%E -0.571%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -2.85%E -1.94%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.72%EV -2.00%E -0.691%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-11 21:05 |
| Bovada | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -2.67%E -0.932%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| Caesars | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-11 20:02 |
| Unibet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-08 23:20 |
| betPARX | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-08 23:20 |
| Bally Bet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-08 23:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.49%E -3.84%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-08 23:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.35%E -1.18%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-11 20:49 |
| DraftKings | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.51%E -2.40%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 19:49 |
| BetMGM | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.17%E -2.88%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 20:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-11 18:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -6.81%E -4.83%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -5.05%E -1.80%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -1.53%E -1.03%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-11 20:30 |
| PlayUp | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.17%E -2.88%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-10 20:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-10 20:05 |
| BetAnything | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-11 20:59 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.74%E -2.45%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| TABtouch | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -6.81%E -4.83%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-11 21:05 |
| Grosvenor | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -6.81%E -4.83%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.48%E -5.34%K -18.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.48%E -5.34%K -18.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| BetRivers | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.48%E -5.34%K -18.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.44%E -3.13%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-11 21:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.83%E -3.36%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -11.83%E -4.55%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-11 21:03 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.67% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.33% | 0.0% | 2026-07-11 20:49 |
| Novig | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.4% | 2026-07-11 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.4% | 2026-07-11 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.4% | 2026-07-11 21:05 |
| Matchbook | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.4% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| ProphetX | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25% | 1.4% | 2026-07-11 21:05 |
| Polymarket | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72% | 3.9% | 2026-07-11 21:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.36% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 32.80% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-07-11 20:10 |