The School of OddsAlessandro Costa v Cody Durden
Head to Head
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: Alessandro Costa (Local)
Odds
1.3673.53%Min
1.3972.18%Mean
1.3872.46%Median
1.4071.43%Max
Consensus probabilities
67.29%1.486Min
71.13%1.406Max
69.39%1.441Mean
69.37%1.442Median
69.30%1.443IQM
69.48%1.439Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.40 under the IQM model: 69.30%
EV -2.99%Edge -2.13%Kelly -7.46%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Cody Durden (Visit)
Odds
2.8834.72%Min
3.0532.73%Mean
3.0033.33%Median
3.3529.85%Max
Consensus probabilities
28.87%3.463Min
32.71%3.057Max
30.61%3.267Mean
30.63%3.264Median
30.70%3.257IQM
30.52%3.277Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.35 under the IQM model: 30.70%
EV +2.86%Edge +0.853%Kelly +1.22%Growth +0.035%
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Alessandro Costa (Local) | Cody Durden (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.36I 73.53% NM 71.13%EV -5.76% E -4.23% K -15.99% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 28.87%EV +2.86% E +0.853% K +1.22% G +0.035% | 3.4% | 2026-06-29 13:30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38I 72.46% NM 69.93%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15% NM 30.07%EV -1.44% E -0.449% K -0.652% G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-05 00:19 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.39I 71.94% NM 69.38%EV -3.68% E -2.65% K -9.43% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 30.62%EV -3.28% E -1.04% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-04 11:30 |
| Bovada | 1.38I 72.46% NM 69.54%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 30.46%EV -3.28% E -1.04% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-03 13:00 |
| NordicBet | 1.38I 72.46% NM 69.54%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 30.46%EV -3.28% E -1.04% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-02 20:25 |
| Betsson | 1.38I 72.46% NM 69.54%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 30.46%EV -3.28% E -1.04% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-02 20:25 |
| DraftKings | 1.38I 72.46% NM 69.54%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 30.46%EV -3.28% E -1.04% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-02 12:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.36I 73.53% NM 69.84%EV -5.76% E -4.23% K -15.99% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 30.16%EV -3.28% E -1.04% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 18:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.37I 72.99% NM 69.35%EV -5.06% E -3.70% K -13.69% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 30.65%EV -4.82% E -1.55% K -2.29% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 21:40 |
| SportsBet | 1.38I 72.46% NM 68.99%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57% NM 31.01%EV -5.74% E -1.87% K -2.77% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-04 21:05 |
| Caesars | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.54%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79% NM 31.46%EV -6.35% E -2.08% K -3.10% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 16:38 |
| Bet Right | 1.38I 72.46% NM 68.85%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79% NM 31.15%EV -6.35% E -2.08% K -3.10% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-02 12:34 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.36I 73.53% NM 69.16%EV -5.76% E -4.23% K -15.99% G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79% NM 30.84%EV -6.35% E -2.08% K -3.10% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 21:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| Unibet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| TABtouch | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:49 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| betPARX | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:48 |
| Bally Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 19:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.38I 72.46% NM 68.49%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.51%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 16:00 |
| BetAnything | 1.38I 72.46% NM 68.49%EV -4.37% E -3.17% K -11.50% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.51%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-02 19:25 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.37I 72.99% NM 68.65%EV -5.06% E -3.70% K -13.69% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.35%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-01 21:39 |
| BetMGM | 1.36I 73.53% NM 68.81%EV -5.76% E -4.23% K -15.99% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.19%EV -7.89% E -2.63% K -3.94% G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-04 18:20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.29%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.71%EV -11.57% E -4.02% K -6.16% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 16:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.29%EV -2.99% E -2.13% K -7.46% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 32.71%EV -11.57% E -4.02% K -6.16% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 16:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Alessandro Costa (Local) | Cody Durden (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.43I 69.93% | 3.23I 30.96% | 0.9% | 2026-07-05 00:05 |
| ProphetX | 1.36I 73.53% | 3.05I 32.79% | 6.3% | 2026-07-02 21:30 |
| Novig | 1.00I 100.00% | 3.33I 30.03% | 30.0% | 2026-07-05 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.03I 97.09% | 1.03I 97.09% | 94.2% | 2026-07-05 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.03I 97.09% | 1.03I 97.09% | 94.2% | 2026-07-05 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.03I 97.09% | 1.03I 97.09% | 94.2% | 2026-07-05 00:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39I 71.94% | 3.15I 31.75% | 33.00I 3.03% | 6.7% | 2026-07-01 16:40 |