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Aleksandre Topuria v Santiago Luna

2026-11-21 17:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandre Topuria (Local)

Prediction 64.81%1.54fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -7.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.13%64.81%64.69%65.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.451.461.4970.92%68.85%68.73%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santiago Luna (Visit)

Prediction 35.19%2.84fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.47%35.19%35.31%35.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.652.652.7338.46%37.66%37.81%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aleksandre Topuria (Local): 64.81%; Santiago Luna (Visit): 35.19%. For Aleksandre Topuria (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.54. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.49, with an expected value of -3.44%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -3.44%E -2.31%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -3.92%E -1.44%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-13 01:34
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.13%EV -5.38%E -3.69%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.87%EV -8.14%E -3.12%K -5.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-13 01:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.03%E -4.16%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.49%E -3.27%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-13 01:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -8.62%E -6.12%K -21.04%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -5.68%E -2.12%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-13 01:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.24I 80.65%NM 63.42%2.15I 46.51%NM 36.58%27.2%2026-11-13 01:35

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