Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Rakic v Marcin Tybura

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

86%

14%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Rakic (Local)

Prediction 86.28%1.16fair odd

EV +12.17%

Edge +9.36%

Kelly +40.56%

Growth +4.94%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.38%85.56%90.66%96.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.111.031.30100.00%90.16%97.09%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marcin Tybura (Visit)

Prediction 13.72%7.29fair odd

EV +242.93%

Edge +9.72%

Kelly +10.12%

Growth +24.59%

assuming max odds 25.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.88%14.44%9.34%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.509.6310.1825.0028.57%10.39%9.83%4.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Rakic (Local): 86.28%; Marcin Tybura (Visit): 13.72%. For Marcin Tybura (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.29. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 25.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +242.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12%EV -12.85%E -12.73%K -1285.44%G +0.000%	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88%EV +242.93%E +9.72%K +10.12%G +24.59%	3.0%	2026-08-01 18:39
DraftKings🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -12.85%E -12.73%K -1285.44%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +188.06%E +8.96%K +9.40%G +17.68%	3.8%	2026-08-01 18:40
betPARX🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +105.76%E +7.05%K +7.55%G +7.99%	4.7%	2026-08-01 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +105.76%E +7.05%K +7.55%G +7.99%	4.7%	2026-08-01 18:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +105.76%E +7.05%K +7.55%G +7.99%	4.7%	2026-08-01 18:40
Bovada🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -11.13%E -10.80%K -370.96%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +78.32%E +6.02%K +6.53%G +5.11%	4.8%	2026-08-01 18:38
Grosvenor🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +78.32%E +6.02%K +6.53%G +5.11%	5.7%	2026-08-01 18:40
TABtouch🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +78.32%E +6.02%K +6.53%G +5.11%	5.7%	2026-08-01 18:39
Unibet🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -11.13%E -10.80%K -370.96%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +71.47%E +5.72%K +6.21%G +4.44%	5.1%	2026-08-01 18:38
BetMGM🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV +71.47%E +5.72%K +6.21%G +4.44%	6.0%	2026-08-01 18:39
Virgin Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV +71.47%E +5.72%K +6.21%G +4.44%	6.0%	2026-08-01 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV +71.47%E +5.72%K +6.21%G +4.44%	6.0%	2026-08-01 18:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV +71.47%E +5.72%K +6.21%G +4.44%	6.0%	2026-08-01 18:39
BetRivers🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -12.85%E -12.73%K -1285.44%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV +71.47%E +5.72%K +6.21%G +4.44%	7.0%	2026-08-01 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.16%EV -13.72%E -13.72%K +0.000%G +0.000%	11.75I 8.51%NM 7.84%EV +61.18%E +5.21%K +5.69%G +3.48%	8.5%	2026-08-01 18:40
NordicBet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -12.85%E -12.73%K -1285.44%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +50.89%E +4.63%K +5.09%G +2.59%	8.1%	2026-08-01 18:39
Fliff🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 90.95%EV -11.13%E -10.80%K -370.96%G +0.000%	10.35I 9.66%NM 9.05%EV +41.97%E +4.06%K +4.49%G +1.88%	6.7%	2026-08-01 18:39
Betway🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -11.13%E -10.80%K -370.96%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +37.17%E +3.72%K +4.13%G +1.54%	7.1%	2026-08-01 18:39
Betsson🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +37.17%E +3.72%K +4.13%G +1.54%	8.0%	2026-08-01 18:34
Paddy Power🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -8.54%E -8.06%K -142.34%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +23.46%E +2.61%K +2.93%G +0.688%	5.5%	2026-08-01 18:37
Caesars🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.09%E -4.63%K -50.89%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.98%E -0.568%K -0.663%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-01 18:31
PMU (FR)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 87.28%EV -11.99%E -11.76%K -599.58%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -3.98%E -0.568%K -0.663%G +0.000%	12.3%	2026-08-01 18:37
FanDuel🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV +8.72%E +6.92%K +33.52%G +2.92%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -43.76%E -10.67%K -14.12%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-07-31 18:50
SportsBet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV +6.99%E +5.64%K +29.13%G +2.04%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -43.76%E -10.67%K -14.12%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-31 15:39
BetUS🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.46%EV +7.85%E +6.28%K +31.41%G +2.47%	4.06I 24.63%NM 23.54%EV -44.31%E -10.91%K -14.48%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-01 18:22
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +7.85%E +6.28%K +31.41%G +2.47%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -45.13%E -11.28%K -15.04%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-01 12:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%EV +12.17%E +9.36%K +40.56%G +4.94%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%EV -47.19%E -12.26%K -16.56%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-08-01 18:33
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV +10.44%E +8.16%K +37.29%G +3.89%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -47.19%E -12.26%K -16.56%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-01 18:20
Bet Right🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV +8.72%E +6.92%K +33.52%G +2.92%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -47.19%E -12.26%K -16.56%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-01 18:04
PlayUp🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV +7.85%E +6.28%K +31.41%G +2.47%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -47.19%E -12.26%K -16.56%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-30 08:30
888sport🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV +9.58%E +7.54%K +35.48%G +3.40%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -47.87%E -12.60%K -17.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-01 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV +10.44%E +8.16%K +37.29%G +3.89%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -48.56%E -12.95%K -17.66%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-01 17:59
BetAnything🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV +9.58%E +7.54%K +35.48%G +3.40%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -51.99%E -14.85%K -20.80%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-08-01 18:22
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV +8.72%E +6.92%K +33.52%G +2.92%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -51.99%E -14.85%K -20.80%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-08-01 18:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26%	0.9%	2026-08-01 18:39
Polymarket◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%	1.0%	2026-08-01 18:40
Kalshi◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%	1.0%	2026-08-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.04I 96.15%NM 89.84%	9.20I 10.87%NM 10.16%	7.0%	2026-08-01 18:40
ProphetX◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%	7.1%	2026-08-01 18:38
Novig◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.09%	11.76I 8.50%NM 7.91%	7.5%	2026-08-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 64.77%	1.93I 51.81%NM 35.23%	47.1%	2026-08-01 18:40

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