The School of Odds

Aleksandar Rakic v Marcin Tybura

2026-08-01 22:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Aleksandar Rakic (Local)

Prediction 67.62%1.48fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -3.30%
Kelly -11.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.89%67.62%65.53%72.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.381.4175%73%72%71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Marcin Tybura (Visit)

Prediction 32.38%3.09fair odd
EV +13.31%
Edge +3.80%
Kelly +5.33%
Growth +0.709%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%32.38%34.47%35.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.552.912.683.5039%34%37%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -10.06%E -7.56%K -30.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +13.31%E +3.80%K +5.33%G +0.709%3.8%2026-07-24 00:30
Betclic (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -4.65%E -3.30%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -13.23%E -4.94%K -7.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-24 00:35
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 64.89%EV -6.68%E -4.84%K -17.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -17.44%E -6.84%K -11.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 00:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.27I 78.74%NM 71.78%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.22%9.7%2026-07-24 06:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.56%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%7.3%2026-07-24 01:15
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.51%Betclic (FR) 1.41 (71.3%) / BetOnline.ag 3.50 (28.7%)Show details
Aleksandar Rakic (Local)Marcin Tybura (Visit)Margin
Betclic (FR) 1.41 (71.3%)BetOnline.ag 3.50 (28.7%)+0.509%