The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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AJ McKee v Salamat Isbulaev

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 05:00 UTC

Final: AJ McKee 1–0 Salamat Isbulaev

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AJ McKee (Local)

Prediction 58.33%1.71fair odd
EV -0.254%
Edge -0.149%
Kelly -0.358%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%58.33%57.87%61.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.671.7164.52%61.14%59.88%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Salamat Isbulaev (Visit)

Prediction 41.67%2.40fair odd
EV +4.17%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.78%
Growth +0.116%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.57%41.67%42.13%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.182.5046.51%44.01%45.87%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AJ McKee (Local): 58.33%; Salamat Isbulaev (Visit): 41.67%. For Salamat Isbulaev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -8.42%E -5.36%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV +4.17%E +1.67%K +2.78%G +0.116%3.7%2026-06-28 03:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -9.59%E -6.19%K -17.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +0.006%E +0.002%K +0.004%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-28 03:29
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -9.59%E -6.19%K -17.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +0.006%E +0.002%K +0.004%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-28 03:29
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -3.17%E -1.91%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -4.99%E -2.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-28 00:09
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -2.59%E -1.55%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -9.16%E -4.20%K -7.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-27 15:29
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -2.59%E -1.55%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -9.16%E -4.20%K -7.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-27 15:29
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -2.59%E -1.55%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -9.16%E -4.20%K -7.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-27 15:29
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -2.59%E -1.55%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -9.16%E -4.20%K -7.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-27 15:29
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -0.254%E -0.149%K -0.358%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -10.41%E -4.84%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-26 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.