Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ahejiang Ailinuer v George Mangos

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 11:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

14%

86%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ahejiang Ailinuer (Local)

Prediction 14.15%7.07fair odd

EV +9.52%

Edge +1.23%

Kelly +1.41%

Growth +0.134%

assuming max odds 7.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.44%14.15%14.15%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.506.466.057.7418.18%15.48%16.53%12.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

George Mangos (Visit)

Prediction 85.85%1.16fair odd

EV -2.13%

Edge -1.87%

Kelly -15.22%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.08%85.85%85.85%87.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.111.111.1490.91%89.77%90.09%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ahejiang Ailinuer (Local): 14.15%; George Mangos (Visit): 85.85%. For Ahejiang Ailinuer (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	7.74I 12.92%NM 12.44%EV +9.52%E +1.23%K +1.41%G +0.134%	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.56%EV -5.56%E -5.06%K -55.64%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-28 11:30
Bovada🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -0.954%E -0.136%K -0.159%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.71%E -4.24%K -42.78%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-28 11:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV -14.40%E -2.38%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -2.13%E -1.87%K -15.22%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-28 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.10%E -2.52%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.56%E -5.06%K -55.64%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-28 09:30
BetAnything🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -22.18%E -4.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -3.85%E -3.44%K -32.06%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-28 11:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.