Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adama Diop v Zaurbek Sabanov

2026-09-30 00:30 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

22%

78%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adama Diop (Local)

Prediction 22.25%4.49fair odd

EV +2.37%

Edge +0.515%

Kelly +0.658%

Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.42%22.25%22.25%23.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.864.384.604.6025.91%22.82%21.74%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zaurbek Sabanov (Visit)

Prediction 77.75%1.29fair odd

EV -2.04%

Edge -1.62%

Kelly -7.85%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.18%77.75%77.75%79.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.131.191.181.2688.50%84.15%84.75%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Adama Diop (Local): 22.25%; Zaurbek Sabanov (Visit): 77.75%. For Adama Diop (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.60, producing a positive expected value of +2.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +2.37%E +0.515%K +0.658%G +0.016%	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.70%E -5.59%K -33.52%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-28 16:25
Grosvenor🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +2.37%E +0.515%K +0.658%G +0.016%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.26%E -7.00%K -45.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-28 17:00
Unibet🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +2.37%E +0.515%K +0.658%G +0.016%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.26%E -7.00%K -45.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-28 17:00
TABtouch🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +2.37%E +0.515%K +0.658%G +0.016%	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.26%E -7.00%K -45.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-28 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -10.32%E -2.56%K -3.40%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -2.04%E -1.62%K -7.85%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-28 18:45
ReBet🎯	3.86I 25.91%NM 22.65%EV -14.10%E -3.65%K -4.93%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 77.35%EV -12.15%E -10.75%K -93.44%G +0.000%	14.4%	2026-09-28 16:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	4.42I 22.62%NM 22.59%	1.29I 77.52%NM 77.41%	0.1%	2026-09-28 19:20
Novig◎	4.17I 23.98%NM 22.63%	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.37%	5.9%	2026-09-28 19:30