The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Adama Diop v Zaurbek Sabanov

Kickoff: 2026-09-29 23:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adama Diop (Local)

Prediction 25.47%3.93fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.572%
Kelly -0.774%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%25.72%25.47%27.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.223.653.653.8431.06%27.40%27.40%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zaurbek Sabanov (Visit)

Prediction 74.53%1.34fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -5.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.04%74.28%74.53%75.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.281.291.3280.00%78.06%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adama Diop (Local): 25.47%; Zaurbek Sabanov (Visit): 74.53%. For Zaurbek Sabanov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.32, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 25.00%EV -2.20%E -0.572%K -0.774%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.00%EV -4.60%E -3.59%K -16.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-29 23:25
BetMGM🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.22%E -0.846%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-29 20:20
FanDuel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.49%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-29 22:30
TAB🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.49%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.84%E -5.47%K -27.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 20:25
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.04%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 17:35
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.04%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 17:35
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.04%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.86%E -2.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 17:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.31%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.09%E -4.83%K -23.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-29 20:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -8.82%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -1.62%E -1.23%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-29 23:54
ReBet🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 27.96%EV -17.99%E -5.59%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -6.84%E -5.47%K -27.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-29 23:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎3.69I 27.10%NM 27.08%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.92%0.1%2026-09-29 23:48
Novig◎3.51I 28.49%NM 27.93%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.07%2.0%2026-09-29 23:50