The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Adam Livingston v Hunter Smith

Kickoff: 2026-09-01 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adam Livingston (Local)

Prediction 63.54%1.57fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -5.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.35%63.54%64.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.511.521.5367.57%66.05%65.79%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hunter Smith (Visit)

Prediction 36.46%2.74fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.574%
Kelly -0.912%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.71%36.65%36.46%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.562.552.7040.82%39.00%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adam Livingston (Local): 63.54%; Hunter Smith (Visit): 36.46%. For Hunter Smith (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -1.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.79%E -1.82%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 22:05
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.79%E -1.82%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 22:05
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.79%E -1.82%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 22:05
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.79%E -1.82%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.84%E -3.54%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 17:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -3.42%E -2.25%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -4.47%E -1.70%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-01 22:34
BetAnything🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -3.42%E -2.25%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -4.83%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-01 22:34
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.79%EV -4.06%E -2.69%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.21%EV -3.01%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-01 15:50
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.69%E -3.13%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.55%E -0.574%K -0.912%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-01 23:00
ReBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -5.33%E -3.58%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -10.67%E -4.35%K -7.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 19:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.97%E -4.03%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.20%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 21:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.92%2.94I 34.01%NM 34.08%-0.2%2026-09-01 23:02
Novig◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.02%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.98%1.4%2026-09-01 23:10
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%2.1%2026-09-01 23:10
ProphetX◎1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%6.3%2026-09-01 23:10