The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Adam Darby v Patrick Rivera

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 00:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adam Darby (Local)

Prediction 80.12%1.25fair odd
EV +0.144%
Edge +0.115%
Kelly +0.577%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.04%79.73%80.12%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.211.2585.47%82.58%82.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Patrick Rivera (Visit)

Prediction 19.88%5.03fair odd
EV -0.577%
Edge -0.115%
Kelly -0.144%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%20.27%19.88%27.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.224.484.405.0031.06%22.32%22.73%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adam Darby (Local): 80.12%; Patrick Rivera (Visit): 19.88%. For Adam Darby (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.248. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.250, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.144%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
ReBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV +0.144%E +0.115%K +0.577%G +0.001%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.96%EV -35.97%E -11.17%K -16.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-01 18:20
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.26%E -1.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 19:25
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.26%E -1.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 19:24
TABtouch🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.26%E -1.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 19:25
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.26%E -1.85%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 17:29
BetAnything🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -3.06%E -2.53%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 00:50
Pinnacle🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.39%EV -3.86%E -3.22%K -19.31%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.61%EV -2.17%E -0.441%K -0.553%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-02 00:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.23%EV -3.86%E -3.22%K -19.31%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.77%EV -3.16%E -0.649%K -0.817%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-02 00:50
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -3.86%E -3.22%K -19.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -4.55%E -0.949%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 00:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.27%E -5.35%K -36.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.577%E -0.115%K -0.144%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80%1.0%2026-09-02 00:45
Novig◎1.24I 80.65%NM 79.33%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.67%1.7%2026-09-02 00:50
ProphetX◎1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%6.3%2026-09-02 00:50