The School of Odds
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Abusupyian Magomedov v Cam Rowston

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 16:45 UTC

Final: Abusupyian Magomedov 1–0 Cam Rowston

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abusupyian Magomedov (Local)

Prediction 52.11%1.92fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.92%52.21%52.14%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.811.831.8759.52%55.12%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cam Rowston (Visit)

Prediction 47.89%2.09fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.887%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%47.79%47.86%49.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.981.982.0555.25%50.49%50.51%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abusupyian Magomedov (Local): 52.11%; Cam Rowston (Visit): 47.89%. For Cam Rowston (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.05, with an expected value of -1.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -2.56%E -1.37%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -3.26%E -1.61%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-24 16:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -2.56%E -1.37%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -7.09%E -3.65%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.60%E -1.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -3.73%E -1.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 13:30
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.60%E -1.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.17%E -2.61%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 16:14
Coolbet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.21%EV -4.12%E -2.24%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.79%EV -3.73%E -1.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 14:14
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.26%E -1.61%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 19:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 12:40
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 14:47
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 10:05
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.17%E -2.61%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 11:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.17%E -2.61%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 10:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.17%E -2.61%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 10:04
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.17%E -2.61%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 10:05
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.65%E -2.87%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 10:05
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.65%E -2.87%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 10:04
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.65%E -2.87%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 10:04
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.65%E -2.87%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 10:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.65%E -2.87%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 10:05
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.64%E -2.54%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.52%E -4.46%K -9.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.21%E -3.45%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.82%E -0.887%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:40
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.21%E -3.45%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-20 22:28
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.21%E -3.45%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.17%E -2.61%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 12:40
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.86%E -5.70%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 08:09
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.86%E -5.70%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 08:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.86%E -5.70%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 08:09
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.86%EV -12.46%E -7.42%K -18.32%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.14%EV -13.31%E -7.36%K -16.44%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-24 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-10-24 15:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-10-24 16:31
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-10-24 16:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.53%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.47%1.3%2026-10-24 16:31
Matchbook◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.53%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.47%1.3%2026-10-24 16:20
ProphetX◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%2.4%2026-10-24 16:31

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.65%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%9.3%2026-10-22 15:09