Abubakar Vagaev v Saygid Izagakhmaev

2026-07-25 16:15 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Abubakar Vagaev (Local)

Prediction 67.99%1.47fair odd

EV -0.737%

Edge -0.505%

Kelly -1.60%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.73%67.77%67.97%68.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.341.401.401.4675%71%71%68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Saygid Izagakhmaev (Visit)

Prediction 32.01%3.12fair odd

EV -0.764%

Edge -0.246%

Kelly -0.364%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.09%32.23%32.03%34.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.802.942.903.1036%34%34%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars⚠ implausible	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +107.36%E +35.20%K +52.37%G +56.23%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -55.18%E -39.42%K -137.96%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-21 22:43
DraftKings	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -0.737%E -0.505%K -1.60%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -10.37%E -3.70%K -5.76%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-21 20:50
BetOnline.ag	1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.46%E -2.43%K -8.23%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.36%E -0.775%K -1.15%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-07-21 21:45
PointsBet (AU)	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.46%E -2.43%K -8.23%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -7.17%E -2.47%K -3.77%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-21 21:55
Bet Right	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.46%E -2.43%K -8.23%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.81%E -2.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-21 22:10
Betr (AU)	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.14%E -2.93%K -10.09%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.77%E -3.08%K -4.74%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-21 21:55
BetUS	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -4.82%E -3.44%K -12.04%G +0.000%	3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -2.04%E -0.668%K -0.992%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-21 21:59
Unibet (UK)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.82%E -3.44%K -12.04%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.17%E -2.47%K -3.77%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-21 21:45
Paddy Power	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.82%E -3.44%K -12.04%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.81%E -2.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-21 14:31
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.82%E -3.44%K -12.04%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.81%E -2.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-21 14:45
SportsBet	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -5.50%E -3.95%K -14.09%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -3.32%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-21 14:30
FanDuel	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.18%E -4.48%K -16.25%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.97%E -1.32%K -1.98%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-21 14:30
Betclic (FR)	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.91%EV -8.90%E -6.64%K -26.16%G +0.000%	2.97I 33.67%NM 31.09%EV -4.93%E -1.66%K -2.50%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-21 18:33

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27%	3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73%	1.0%	2026-07-21 22:35
Polymarket	1.43I 69.93%NM 68.57%	3.12I 32.05%NM 31.43%	2.0%	2026-07-21 22:30
Novig	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.21%	3.17I 31.55%NM 30.79%	2.5%	2026-07-21 22:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.83%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%	8.4%	2026-07-21 20:05