Language:English
Abubakar Vagaev v Saygid Izagakhmaev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Abubakar Vagaev (Local)
Prediction 64.45%1.55fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.914%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%64.99%64.21%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.461.451.5373.53%68.56%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Saygid Izagakhmaev (Visit)
Prediction 35.55%2.81fair odd
EV +10.22%
Edge +3.30%
Kelly +4.87%
Growth +0.497%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%35.01%35.79%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.753.1040.00%36.61%36.36%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abubakar Vagaev (Local): 64.45%; Saygid Izagakhmaev (Visit): 35.55%. For Saygid Izagakhmaev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.22%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -12.35%E -9.08%K -34.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +10.22%E +3.30%K +4.87%G +0.497% | 5.8% | 2026-07-23 08:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -11.06%E -8.02%K -29.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +6.66%E +2.22%K +3.33%G +0.222% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -11.06%E -8.02%K -29.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +6.66%E +2.22%K +3.33%G +0.222% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.49%E -5.98%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.11%E +1.07%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 4.9% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -9.78%E -6.98%K -24.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +3.11%E +1.07%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 5.9% | 2026-07-25 09:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.55%E -4.52%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.449%E -0.160%K -0.249%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -0.449%E -0.160%K -0.249%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.84%E -5.48%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -0.449%E -0.160%K -0.249%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.59%EV -10.42%E -7.50%K -26.72%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.41%EV -1.52%E -0.547%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-25 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.55%E -4.52%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.55%E -4.52%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.55%E -4.52%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.55%E -4.52%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-25 15:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.23%E -0.810%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 15:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -2.94%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -2.04%E -1.34%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-07-25 16:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-25 16:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.00%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.33%E -2.22%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.78%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-25 16:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -1.40%E -0.914%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -2.69%E -1.78%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.26%EV -9.78%E -6.98%K -24.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.74%EV -6.49%E -2.47%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-25 15:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -2.04%E -1.34%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -6.85%E -2.61%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -2.69%E -1.78%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -6.85%E -2.61%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -1.40%E -0.914%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -7.56%E -2.91%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-25 15:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.33%E -2.22%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.56%E -2.91%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.33%E -2.22%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.56%E -2.91%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-25 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.33%E -2.22%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.56%E -2.91%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.40%E -0.914%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.11%E -4.45%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.13%EV -5.91%E -4.05%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -11.11%E -4.45%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-25 16:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.53% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.47% | -0.0% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-07-25 15:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-07-25 16:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 1.1% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35% | 1.8% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35% | 1.8% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35% | 1.8% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.49% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.51% | 2.0% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20% | 2.2% | 2026-07-25 16:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.82% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23% | 48.00I 2.08%NM 1.95% | 7.0% | 2026-07-25 15:35 |
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