The School of Odds
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Abubakar Vagaev v Jacob Malkoun

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 15:16 UTC

Final: Jacob Malkoun 0–1 Abubakar Vagaev

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abubakar Vagaev (Local)

Prediction 58.33%1.71fair odd
EV -0.253%
Edge -0.148%
Kelly -0.356%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%58.62%58.23%60.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.631.641.7166.67%61.36%60.98%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacob Malkoun (Visit)

Prediction 41.67%2.40fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.852%
Kelly +1.44%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.21%41.38%41.77%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.272.252.4548.54%44.02%44.44%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abubakar Vagaev (Local): 58.33%; Jacob Malkoun (Visit): 41.67%. For Jacob Malkoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -7.25%E -4.56%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV +2.09%E +0.852%K +1.44%G +0.030%3.7%2026-10-24 15:15
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -7.84%E -4.96%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV +2.09%E +0.852%K +1.44%G +0.030%4.1%2026-10-23 15:29
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -9.59%E -6.18%K -17.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +0.004%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-22 17:29
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.50%E -3.40%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.08%E -0.885%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 19:44
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -4.92%E -3.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -2.50%E -1.07%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 15:21
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -2.91%E -1.25%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 14:19
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -3.33%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 15:10
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-21 23:35
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 12:55
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.92%E -3.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 15:10
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -1.42%E -0.840%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -5.00%E -2.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-24 15:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 12:04
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 22:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 22:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 23:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 12:05
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 12:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 12:05
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 12:05
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 12:04
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 12:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 12:04
Bally Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 12:05
TAB🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.92%E -3.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 21:27
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.42%E -5.36%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 23:05
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.42%E -5.36%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 23:25
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -3.75%E -2.27%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -6.66%E -2.97%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 10:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.34%E -2.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.41%E -4.84%K -9.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 15:15
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -0.253%E -0.148%K -0.356%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -12.50%E -5.95%K -11.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 15:05
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.87%EV -12.50%E -8.33%K -25.00%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 42.13%EV -14.16%E -6.88%K -13.36%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-21 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26%0.1%2026-10-24 14:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-10-24 15:15
Polymarket◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-24 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-24 15:15
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-10-24 15:05
Novig◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.5%2026-10-24 15:15
ProphetX◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%3.0%2026-10-24 15:15
Matchbook◎1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%3.9%2026-10-24 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 58.01%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%13.4%2026-10-24 15:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.48%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.10%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.43%8.5%2026-10-24 14:35

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