The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Abe Alsaghir v Fabrizio Escarrega

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 00:39 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abe Alsaghir (Local)

Prediction 45.30%2.21fair odd
EV -0.332%
Edge -0.151%
Kelly -0.276%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%45.33%45.30%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.152.2048.78%46.83%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fabrizio Escarrega (Visit)

Prediction 54.70%1.83fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -4.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%54.67%54.70%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.741.7759.88%57.88%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abe Alsaghir (Local): 45.30%; Fabrizio Escarrega (Visit): 54.70%. For Abe Alsaghir (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -0.332%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.332%E -0.151%K -0.276%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.66%E -5.18%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-11 16:05
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.14%E -0.992%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.02%E -4.13%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 15:19
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.14%E -0.992%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.02%E -4.13%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 15:19
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.14%E -0.992%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.02%E -4.13%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 15:19
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.60%E -1.21%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.19%E -1.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-12 00:30
FanDuel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.05%E -1.43%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.28%E -2.45%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-11 22:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.19%E -1.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 00:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.28%E -2.45%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-11 14:38
BetAnything🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.83%E -2.78%K -6.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-12 00:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-12 00:34
ProphetX◎2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%9.5%2026-08-12 00:35