Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady v Shem Rock

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

50%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (Local)

Prediction 49.70%2.01fair odd

EV +12.32%

Edge +5.45%

Kelly +9.78%

Growth +1.20%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.19%51.61%45.24%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.821.572.2671.43%55.07%63.69%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shem Rock (Visit)

Prediction 50.30%1.99fair odd

EV +38.33%

Edge +13.94%

Kelly +21.90%

Growth +8.39%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.73%48.39%54.76%57.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.622.072.252.7561.73%48.30%44.44%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (Local): 49.70%; Shem Rock (Visit): 50.30%. For Shem Rock (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +38.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -30.42%E -21.73%K -76.05%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +38.33%E +13.94%K +21.90%G +8.39%	7.8%	2026-03-21 17:37
Bovada🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -26.44%E -17.87%K -55.09%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +30.78%E +11.84%K +19.24%G +5.92%	6.0%	2026-03-21 17:39
Betsson🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -29.43%E -20.72%K -70.06%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV +30.78%E +11.84%K +19.24%G +5.92%	8.9%	2026-03-21 17:39
NordicBet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -29.43%E -20.72%K -70.06%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV +30.78%E +11.84%K +19.24%G +5.92%	8.9%	2026-03-21 17:39
FanDuel🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -24.46%E -16.09%K -47.03%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +25.75%E +10.30%K +17.17%G +4.42%	5.8%	2026-03-21 17:40
Unibet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -24.46%E -16.09%K -47.03%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV +22.23%E +9.15%K +15.55%G +3.46%	6.9%	2026-03-21 17:39
DraftKings🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -22.47%E -14.40%K -40.12%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +20.72%E +8.63%K +14.80%G +3.07%	5.8%	2026-03-21 17:39
BetMGM🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -23.46%E -15.24%K -43.45%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV +18.21%E +7.75%K +13.49%G +2.46%	7.5%	2026-03-21 17:39
ATG (SE)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -22.47%E -14.40%K -40.12%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +16.70%E +7.20%K +12.65%G +2.11%	7.2%	2026-03-21 17:39
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -22.47%E -14.40%K -40.12%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +16.70%E +7.20%K +12.65%G +2.11%	7.2%	2026-03-21 17:39
betPARX🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -22.47%E -14.40%K -40.12%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +16.70%E +7.20%K +12.65%G +2.11%	7.2%	2026-03-21 17:39
Svenska Spel🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -22.47%E -14.40%K -40.12%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +16.70%E +7.20%K +12.65%G +2.11%	7.2%	2026-03-21 17:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -21.97%E -13.99%K -38.55%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +15.69%E +6.82%K +12.07%G +1.89%	7.2%	2026-03-21 17:39
TABtouch🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -22.47%E -14.40%K -40.12%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV +14.69%E +6.44%K +11.47%G +1.68%	8.0%	2026-03-21 17:39
Paddy Power🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -19.49%E -12.03%K -31.43%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +13.18%E +5.86%K +10.54%G +1.39%	6.2%	2026-03-21 17:39
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -22.97%E -14.82%K -41.76%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV +13.18%E +5.86%K +10.54%G +1.39%	9.0%	2026-03-21 17:39
Virgin Bet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -22.97%E -14.82%K -41.76%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV +13.18%E +5.86%K +10.54%G +1.39%	9.0%	2026-03-21 17:39
Grosvenor🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -22.97%E -14.82%K -41.76%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV +13.18%E +5.86%K +10.54%G +1.39%	9.0%	2026-03-21 17:39
Bally Bet🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -22.97%E -14.82%K -41.76%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV +13.18%E +5.86%K +10.54%G +1.39%	9.0%	2026-03-21 17:39
LeoVegas🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -21.97%E -13.99%K -38.55%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV +8.15%E +3.79%K +7.08%G +0.577%	10.2%	2026-03-21 17:39
PlayUp🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.601%E -0.301%K -0.601%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.46%E -5.25%K -11.82%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-21 17:14
William Hill🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.601%E -0.301%K -0.601%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.46%E -5.25%K -11.82%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-21 11:20
TAB🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.601%E -0.301%K -0.601%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.46%E -5.25%K -11.82%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-20 21:24
BetRivers🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV +4.37%E +2.08%K +3.97%G +0.174%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -12.48%E -7.17%K -16.86%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-21 16:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +4.37%E +2.08%K +3.97%G +0.174%	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -12.98%E -7.50%K -17.78%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-21 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +4.37%E +2.08%K +3.97%G +0.174%	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -12.98%E -7.50%K -17.78%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-21 16:24
Pinnacle🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV +10.83%E +4.86%K +8.80%G +0.954%	1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -13.48%E -7.84%K -18.73%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-03-21 17:25
Betr (AU)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV +4.37%E +2.08%K +3.97%G +0.174%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -13.99%E -8.18%K -19.70%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-21 17:19
Coolbet🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%EV +12.32%E +5.45%K +9.78%G +1.20%	1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%EV -14.49%E -8.52%K -20.70%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-03-21 17:30
SportsBet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV +6.85%E +3.19%K +5.96%G +0.408%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -14.49%E -8.52%K -20.70%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-21 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV +11.82%E +5.25%K +9.46%G +1.12%	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -14.99%E -8.87%K -21.73%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-21 17:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +9.34%E +4.24%K +7.78%G +0.727%	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -15.49%E -9.22%K -22.79%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-21 17:09
Neds🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +9.34%E +4.24%K +7.78%G +0.727%	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -15.49%E -9.22%K -22.79%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-21 17:09
Bet Right🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +9.34%E +4.24%K +7.78%G +0.727%	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -15.49%E -9.22%K -22.79%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-21 17:15
BetUS🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV +12.32%E +5.45%K +9.78%G +1.20%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -16.00%E -9.58%K -23.88%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-21 17:29
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +9.34%E +4.24%K +7.78%G +0.727%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -16.00%E -9.58%K -23.88%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-21 17:31
Caesars🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.19%EV +10.33%E +4.65%K +8.47%G +0.875%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.81%EV -18.51%E -11.43%K -29.86%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-21 17:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	2.30I 43.48%NM 43.49%	1.77I 56.50%NM 56.51%	-0.0%	2026-03-21 17:23
Kalshi◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	0.8%	2026-03-21 17:39
Matchbook◎	2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14%	1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%	1.1%	2026-03-21 17:29
Novig◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%	5.3%	2026-03-21 17:39
ProphetX◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%	5.5%	2026-03-21 17:38