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Aaron Pico v Losene Keita

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 18:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aaron Pico (Local)

Prediction 56.90%1.76fair odd
EV -0.996%
Edge -0.572%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.95%56.89%56.85%58.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.661.671.7465.36%60.15%59.88%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Losene Keita (Visit)

Prediction 43.10%2.32fair odd
EV -0.868%
Edge -0.377%
Kelly -0.668%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%43.11%43.15%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.202.202.3049.50%45.42%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aaron Pico (Local): 56.90%; Losene Keita (Visit): 43.10%. For Losene Keita (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.868%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.95%EV -0.996%E -0.572%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.05%EV -4.75%E -2.15%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-24 18:15
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -2.70%E -1.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -6.04%E -2.77%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-24 17:57
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.27%E -1.92%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 17:00
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.84%E -2.27%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.02%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 18:05
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -3.84%E -2.27%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.88%E -1.74%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 17:31
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.84%E -2.27%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -4.41%E -2.62%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -2.59%E -1.15%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 18:10
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -4.41%E -2.62%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -2.59%E -1.15%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-24 01:30
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.41%E -2.62%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.02%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 18:09
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.41%E -2.62%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 07:58
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.02%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-22 12:39
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.02%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-22 12:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:31
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.55%E -3.34%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.88%E -1.74%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 01:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.55%E -3.34%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 17:00
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.55%E -3.34%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 17:50
NordicBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -6.69%E -4.08%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -0.868%E -0.377%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-23 15:12
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.69%E -4.08%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 13:35
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -7.82%E -4.83%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.65%EV -2.16%E -0.952%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 15:11
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.82%E -4.83%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 01:29
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.82%E -4.83%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 01:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.82%E -4.83%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.18%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 15:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -8.96%E -5.60%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -11.64%E -5.68%K -11.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 17:31
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.90%EV -12.94%E -8.46%K -24.42%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.10%EV -12.94%E -6.40%K -12.68%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-24 17:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-10-24 18:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-10-24 18:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-10-24 18:15
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-10-24 18:14
Polymarket◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-10-24 17:45
Novig◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-10-24 18:15
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%2.2%2026-10-24 17:55
ProphetX◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.36%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%3.2%2026-10-24 17:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.07%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86%7.5%2026-10-24 16:40