The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New York Atlas v Maryland Whipsnakes

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Atlas (Local)

Prediction 45.64%2.19fair odd
EV -0.506%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.429%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.67%45.53%45.61%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.072.1850.00%48.12%48.31%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maryland Whipsnakes (Visit)

Prediction 54.36%1.84fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -4.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%54.47%54.39%56.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.741.741.7759.17%57.58%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Atlas (Local): 45.64%; Maryland Whipsnakes (Visit): 54.36%. For New York Atlas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -0.506%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -0.506%E -0.232%K -0.429%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -8.13%E -4.81%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-20 18:58
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.16%E -1.98%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.41%E -3.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-12 19:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -4.61%E -2.21%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -7.04%E -4.12%K -9.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-20 08:19
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.44%E -3.14%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.78%E -2.14%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-12 21:19
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.44%E -3.14%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.41%E -3.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-20 00:47
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.72%E -4.36%K -8.72%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.78%E -2.14%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-12 01:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.69I 59.17%NM 50.87%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.13%16.3%2026-06-21 00:50