The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

New York Atlas v Denver Outlaws

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Atlas (Local)

Prediction 40.72%2.46fair odd
EV -0.243%
Edge -0.099%
Kelly -0.168%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.44%40.68%40.05%42.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.212.332.302.4545.25%42.98%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Outlaws (Visit)

Prediction 59.28%1.69fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -3.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.25%59.32%59.95%61.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.621.6565.36%62.33%61.73%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Atlas (Local): 40.72%; Denver Outlaws (Visit): 59.28%. For New York Atlas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -0.243%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -0.243%E -0.099%K -0.168%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -9.30%E -6.08%K -17.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 16:20
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.28%E -0.950%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 12:40
FanDuel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -3.09%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 20:20
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.31%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.93%E -4.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 20:55
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.96%E -2.45%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 15:35
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.96%E -2.45%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 15:35
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.96%E -2.45%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 15:35
Caesars🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.39%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 21:08
BetOnline.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -10.02%E -4.53%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 03:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.